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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-07 16:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED... As of 11:00 AM AST Fri Sep 7 the center of Eight was located near 13.1, -17.8 with movement W at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Public Advisory Number 1
2018-09-07 16:34:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 548 WTNT33 KNHC 071434 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Fri Sep 07 2018 ...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS... ...HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO EXPECTED... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 17.8W ABOUT 460 MI...735 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Cabo Verde Islands has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for the southern islands of Santiago, Fogo and Brava. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago, Fogo, and Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 17.8 West. The system is moving toward the west near 10 mph (17 km/h). A westward to west- northwestward motion with a gradual increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72 hours. On the forecast track, the disturbance is expected to move near the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression or tropical storm later today. Conditions are conducive for the disturbance to become a tropical depression or tropical storm later today. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the warning area on Sunday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches, with maximum totals of 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brennan
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-09-07 16:34:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 529 FONT13 KNHC 071434 PWSAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 17.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 5(15) X(15) X(15) PRAIA CVI 34 X 1( 1) 23(24) 24(48) 1(49) X(49) X(49) PRAIA CVI 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PRAIA CVI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 1( 1) 17(18) 12(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) SANTA MARIA CV 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) SANTA MARIA CV 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Eight Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-09-07 16:33:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 640 WTNT23 KNHC 071433 TCMAT3 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE EIGHT FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC FRI SEP 07 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO AND BRAVA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTIAGO * FOGO * BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 17.8W AT 07/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.1N 17.8W AT 07/1500Z AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 17.5W FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.3N 18.6W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.8N 20.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.2N 22.6W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.6N 25.4W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 50NE 20SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 16.0N 32.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 80NE 30SE 30SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 18.0N 37.0W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 20.0N 41.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.1N 17.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Seven Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2018-09-03 11:41:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Mon, 03 Sep 2018 09:41:13 GMT
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