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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Public Advisory Number 1A
2018-10-07 01:31:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT34 KNHC 062330 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Intermediate Advisory Number 1A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 700 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 ...A TROPICAL DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TONIGHT OR SUNDAY... ...HEAVY RAINS HEADING FOR WESTERN CUBA... SUMMARY OF 700 PM CDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.3N 86.6W ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM S OF COZUMEL MEXICO ABOUT 270 MI...435 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * The coast of Mexico from Tulum to Cabo Catoche A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 700 PM CDT (0000 UTC), the area of low pressure was centered near latitude 18.3 North, longitude 86.6 West. The system appears to be moving northward near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is expected for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the low or the tropical cyclone should move near the eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico tonight through Sunday night, and then move into the southern Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the system is expected to become a tropical depression later tonight or on Sunday and a tropical storm on Sunday night. A reconnaissance plane will investigate the system on Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...100 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...100 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the coast within the warning area by Sunday night, making outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area Sunday night and Monday. RAINFALL: The low is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 3 to 7 inches over western Cuba and 2 to 4 inches over the Yucatan peninsula, Belize, and northern Honduras through Tuesday. Isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches are possible in western Cuba. A separate area of persistent very heavy rainfall is expected along the Pacific coast of Central America and Mexico, including western Nicaragua, El Salvador, Guatemala, and the state of Chiapas in Mexico. In many of these areas this rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Graphics
2018-10-06 22:55:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 20:55:19 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 06 Oct 2018 20:55:19 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-10-06 22:50:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 000 WTNT44 KNHC 062050 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018 400 PM CDT Sat Oct 06 2018 Satellite imagery and surface observations indicate that the circulation of the low pressure area in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is getting better defined, and that the associated convection is becoming better organized. While the system is currently not well enough organized to call it a tropical depression, current indications in the global models and the intensity guidance are that the system will develop into a tropical cyclone within 24 h and could bring tropical storm conditions to portions of western Cuba and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula. Based on the need for warnings and watches in these areas, advisories are being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen. Although the intensity guidance is in excellent agreement that the system should strengthen through the forecast period, the global models indicate that shear caused by an upper-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico will persist through at least 48 h. In addition, the strongest winds are currently well removed from the center, which is likely to slow development. Based on this, the intensity forecast is in the lower part of the guidance envelope through 48 h, and then shows a faster rate of development from 48-96 h when the shear is forecast to diminish. The intensity forecast is closest to a blend of the IVCN and HCCA consensus models. For the first 24-48 h, the disturbance should move generally northward on the western side of a weak mid-level ridge over the Caribbean Sea. After that time, a large mid-latitude trough over the central United States and a mid- to upper-level ridge over the western Atlantic should steer the system generally northward at a faster forward speed, with the system expected to move near or over the northern Gulf coast in about 96 h. After landfall, the system is likely to recurve northeastward into the westerlies. The track guidance is in good overall agreement with this scenario. However, it should be noted that there is a nearly 300 n mi cross-track spread in the guidance at the 96-h point. The forecast track lies just to the west of the various consensus models. Key Messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen: 1. This system is expected to produce heavy rainfall and flash flooding over portions of Central America, western Cuba, and the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico during the next couple of days. The system is also forecast to become a tropical storm by Sunday night and tropical storm conditions are expected over portions of western Cuba where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect. 2. The system could bring storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts to portions of the northern Gulf Coast by mid-week, although it is too soon to specify the exact location and magnitude of these impacts. Residents in these areas should monitor the progress of this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 18.0N 86.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 07/0600Z 18.7N 86.7W 25 KT 30 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 19.9N 86.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 36H 08/0600Z 21.0N 86.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 22.5N 86.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 26.0N 87.5W 55 KT 65 MPH 96H 10/1800Z 30.5N 86.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 11/1800Z 35.5N 81.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen (AT4/AL142018)
2018-10-06 22:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN CUBA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Oct 6 the center of Fourteen was located near 18.0, -86.6 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Fourteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-10-06 22:49:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 000 FONT14 KNHC 062049 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142018 2100 UTC SAT OCT 06 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOURTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CHARLOTTESVIL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) DANVILLE VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) GREENSBORO NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) RALEIGH NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) ROCKY MT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) FAYETTEVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) CHARLOTTE NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) CHERRY PT NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) NEW RIVER NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) SURF CITY NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) BALD HEAD ISL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) FLORENCE SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) LITTLE RIVER 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MYRTLE BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) GEORGETOWN SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) CHARLESTON SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 11(19) AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 10(15) SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 7(11) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 6(14) WAYCROSS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) WAYCROSS GA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 5(11) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 4(11) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 4(12) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 9(12) 4(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 7(21) TALLAHASSEE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) TALLAHASSEE FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 13(14) 6(20) ST MARKS FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) ST MARKS FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 16(23) 5(28) APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 1( 7) APALACHICOLA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 15(25) 3(28) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) GFMX 290N 850W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 19(25) 6(31) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 2( 8) PANAMA CITY FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 7(33) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 3(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 10(23) COLUMBUS GA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 10(10) 8(18) BIRMINGHAM AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 15(16) 8(24) MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 3( 7) MONTGOMERY AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 6(28) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 5(27) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 2( 8) PENSACOLA FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 22(35) 4(39) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 1(12) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 19(21) 6(27) MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) 4(23) GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 15(17) 4(21) STENNIS MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 1( 6) STENNIS MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 3(20) BURAS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 18(33) 1(34) GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 1(10) GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) JACKSON MS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 4(14) JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW ORLEANS LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 2(17) NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) GFMX 280N 910W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 10(18) X(18) GFMX 280N 910W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) GFMX 280N 910W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) BATON ROUGE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) MORGAN CITY LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 11(12) 2(14) MORGAN CITY LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4) MORGAN CITY LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) ALEXANDRIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 2( 7) LAFAYETTE LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) NEW IBERIA LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) NEW IBERIA LA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) GFMX 280N 930W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 2( 8) FORT POLK LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) LAKE CHARLES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) CAMERON LA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 1( 6) JASPER TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) KOUNTZE TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) PORT ARTHUR TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) GALVESTON TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) HIGH ISLAND TX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MERIDA MX 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) COZUMEL MX 34 X 9( 9) 11(20) 4(24) 2(26) X(26) X(26) COZUMEL MX 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) CP SAN ANTONIO 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) 9(16) 6(22) X(22) X(22) CP SAN ANTONIO 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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