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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Wind Speed Probabilities Number 37
2018-09-16 16:42:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 434 FONT13 KNHC 161442 PWSAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 43.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 25.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene (AT3/AL082018)
2018-09-16 16:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HELENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Sun Sep 16 the center of Helene was located near 43.8, -25.7 with movement NE at 29 mph. The minimum central pressure was 989 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Public Advisory Number 37
2018-09-16 16:42:15| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 464 WTNT33 KNHC 161442 TCPAT3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Advisory Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL082018 1100 AM AST Sun Sep 16 2018 ...HELENE NOW A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...43.8N 25.7W ABOUT 405 MI...655 KM N OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 29 MPH...46 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...989 MB...29.21 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: None. Interests in Ireland and the United Kingdom should consult products from their local meteorological service for information about potential impacts from Post-Tropical Helene in those locations. Local forecasts and warnings for the UK can be found on the website of the UK Met Office at https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/. Local forecasts and warnings for Ireland can be found on the website of Met Eireann at https://www.met.ie/. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene was located near latitude 43.8 North, longitude 25.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northeast near 29 mph (46 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue with an increase in forward speed during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the post-tropical cyclone will approach Ireland and the United Kingdom on Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Some slight strengthening is possible today. Some weakening is expected by Monday, and the system is forecast to be absorbed by another low pressure area by early Tuesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb (29.21 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. SURF: Swells generated by Helene are affecting portions of the Azores. These swells are likely to continue for another day or so and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by Meteo France under WMO header FQNT50 LFPW and available on the web at: http://www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin. Additional information can also be found in High Seas Forecast issued by the UK Met Office under WMO header FQNT21 EGRR and on the web at: http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/marine-high-seas/. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Helene Forecast Advisory Number 37
2018-09-16 16:41:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 946 WTNT23 KNHC 161441 TCMAT3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HELENE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 37 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082018 1500 UTC SUN SEP 16 2018 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... NONE. INTERESTS IN IRELAND AND THE UNITED KINGDOM SHOULD CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM THEIR LOCAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE FOR INFORMATION ABOUT POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM POST-TROPICAL HELENE IN THOSE LOCATIONS. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR THE UK CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF THE UK MET OFFICE AT HTTPS... //WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK/. LOCAL FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FOR IRELAND CAN BE FOUND ON THE WEBSITE OF MET EIREANN AT HTTPS... //WWW.MET.IE/. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 55 DEGREES AT 25 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 200SE 160SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 270SE 330SW 240NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 43.8N 25.7W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 43.1N 27.1W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 45.8N 21.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 120SW 0NW. 34 KT...180NE 210SE 210SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 49.0N 14.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 0NE 120SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...150NE 210SE 210SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 52.8N 6.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z...ABSORBED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 43.8N 25.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY METEO FRANCE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW, AND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE UK MET OFFICE...UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT21 EGRR. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Paul Graphics
2018-09-12 10:38:42| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 08:38:42 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 12 Sep 2018 08:38:42 GMT
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