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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Public Advisory Number 13
2018-07-29 22:50:28| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 545 WTPZ33 KNHC 292050 TCPEP3 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082018 200 PM PDT Sun Jul 29 2018 ...GILMA IS NOW A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 139.7W ABOUT 1040 MI...1675 KM E OF HILO HAWAII MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM PDT (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma was located near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 139.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the west near 15 mph (24 km/h). This general motion with a slight decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate in a couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 mb (29.77 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Gilma. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.shtml. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Wind Speed Probabilities Number 13
2018-07-29 22:50:27| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 282 FOPZ13 KNHC 292050 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 139.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 15N 145W 34 X 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Gilma Forecast Advisory Number 13
2018-07-29 22:49:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 058 WTPZ23 KNHC 292049 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE GILMA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082018 2100 UTC SUN JUL 29 2018 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.7W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 139.1W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 16.2N 141.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 16.1N 143.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 15.9N 146.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 139.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GILMA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Graphics
2018-07-16 04:35:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Jul 2018 02:35:27 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Jul 2018 02:35:27 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 22
2018-07-16 04:34:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 295 WTNT42 KNHC 160234 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Beryl Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 15 2018 Dry air and shear has prevented the redevelopment of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and what little convection Beryl had early this morning was not very organized. As a result, the system has become post-tropical and this will be the final NHC advisory. The initial intensity of 30 kt is based on a satellite intensity estimate of 25-30 kt from TAFB. Beryl is forecast to remain over marginally warm SSTs in the Gulf Stream overnight, but shear and dry air are expected to prevent organized deep convection from returning. After that time, the remnant low will be moving over much colder waters and a gradual spin down is predicted. The global models indicate that the remnant low will dissipate near southeastern Newfoundland on Tuesday. Beryl is moving east-northeastward at a faster pace than before or 065/11. The cyclone should turn northeastward and accelerate over the next 24 hours as it becomes embedded within low- to mid-level southwesterly flow ahead of an approaching mid-latitude trough. The track models are in good agreement and the new NHC track forecast is near the middle of the tightly clustered guidance envelope. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at https://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0300Z 38.6N 62.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 16/1200Z 39.9N 60.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/0000Z 42.6N 57.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 17/1200Z 45.5N 55.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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