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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 1
2018-08-30 16:44:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 882 WTNT41 KNHC 301444 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 1100 AM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 The area of low pressure that moved off the coast of Africa has continued to become better organized, and is producing a large area of disturbed weather with gusty winds, but currently lacks a well-defined center. Environmental conditions are favorable for additional development, and a tropical depression or a tropical storm could form an any time today or Friday. Given the high chances that this system could bring tropical storm conditions to a portion of the southern Cabo Verde Islands, advisories have been initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Six. Most of the intensity guidance calls for strengthening and so does the NHC forecast. The system is embedded within the easterly trades and this flow pattern will steer the disturbance toward the west or west- northwest during the next few days. By the end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the system reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. This is consistent with the output of the global models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 12.9N 18.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0000Z 13.2N 20.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 31/1200Z 13.5N 22.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 14.0N 24.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 15.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 16.5N 33.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 18.5N 38.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 20.0N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1
2018-08-30 16:44:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 923 FONT11 KNHC 301444 PWSAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 18.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT RIBIERA GRANDE 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 12(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) PRAIA CVI 34 X 2( 2) 30(32) 7(39) 1(40) X(40) X(40) PRAIA CVI 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) SANTA MARIA CV 34 X 2( 2) 12(14) 3(17) 1(18) X(18) X(18) $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Advisory Number 1
2018-08-30 16:43:56| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 761 WTNT21 KNHC 301443 TCMAT1 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE SIX FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062018 1500 UTC THU AUG 30 2018 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN ISLANDS OF SANTIAGO...FOGO AND BRAVA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTIAGO * FOGO * BRAVA A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 18.4W AT 30/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 10 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 18.4W AT 30/1500Z AT 30/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.8N 17.9W FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 13.2N 20.1W...TROPICAL DEPRESSION MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 13.5N 22.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 14.0N 24.0W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 15.0N 27.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 16.5N 33.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT...100NE 70SE 60SW 90NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.5N 38.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 20.0N 42.0W MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.9N 18.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Graphics
2018-08-18 10:35:48| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 08:35:48 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 18 Aug 2018 09:22:07 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Forecast Discussion Number 13
2018-08-18 10:34:30| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 808 WTNT45 KNHC 180834 TCDAT5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ernesto Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052018 500 AM AST Sat Aug 18 2018 Ernesto lost all its associated deep convection and the circulation is becoming elongated. On this basis, it is estimated that Ernesto has become a post-tropical cyclone. The system could still produce 35-kt winds in the southeastern quadrant, but it should continue to slowly weaken during the next 24 hours while it approaches Ireland and merges with a frontal zone later today. The post-tropical cyclone's circulation should dissipate while it moves across Ireland and portions of the United Kingdom by early Sunday. Ernesto is racing east-northeastward at 30 kt, and this motion should continue until dissipation as indicated by guidance. The post-tropical cyclone or its remnants are expected to spread gusty winds and locally heavy rain over portions of Ireland and the United Kingdom tonight and early Sunday. Information on rainfall and wind forecasts for Ireland can be found in products issued by Met Eireann at www.met.ie and for the United Kingdom in products issued by the United Kingdom Met Office at www.metoffice.gov/uk. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 18/0900Z 51.9N 20.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 12H 18/1800Z 53.5N 13.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 19/0600Z 55.0N 5.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Avila
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