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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-31 01:41:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 23:41:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Six (AT1/AL062018)
2018-08-31 01:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... As of 8:00 PM AST Thu Aug 30 the center of Six was located near 13.1, -20.4 with movement W at 11 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Public Advisory Number 2A
2018-08-31 01:41:27| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 428 WTNT31 KNHC 302341 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Intermediate Advisory Number 2A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 800 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 ...DISTURBANCE MOVING WESTWARD... ...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHERN CABO VERDE ISLANDS ON FRIDAY... SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...13.1N 20.4W ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 11 MPH...18 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Santiago * Fogo * Brava A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case, within the next 24 to 36 hours. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 PM AST (0000 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 13.1 North, longitude 20.4 West. The system is moving toward the west near 11 mph (18 km/h), and a general west to west-northwest track with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next 2 to 3 days. On the forecast track, the disturbance or the tropical cyclone is expected to move near or over the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. Maximum sustained winds remain near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical storm during the next day or so. Environmental conditions are favorable for the system to become a tropical cyclone tonight or Friday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high ...90 percent The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The system could produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 8 inches across the southern Cabo Verde Islands. These rains could produce life-threatening flash floods. WINDS: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the southern Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Graphics
2018-08-30 22:33:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 20:33:43 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 30 Aug 2018 21:22:07 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Forecast Discussion Number 2
2018-08-30 22:32:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 270 WTNT41 KNHC 302032 TCDAT1 Potential Tropical Cyclone Six Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062018 500 PM AST Thu Aug 30 2018 The area of low pressure has continued to become better defined, and is still accompanied by a large area of disturbed weather with gusty winds. However, the system lacks a well-defined center, and Dvorak classifications do not support to classify the disturbance as a tropical depression at this time. An environment of high moisture and low shear favors genesis, and the disturbance is expected to become a tropical cyclone within the next 12 to 24 hours. These favorable conditions are expected to prevail, so the NHC forecast gradually brings the winds up at a similar rate as the intensity consensus. Since the system lacks a well defined center, the initial motion is uncertain. The best estimate is toward the west or 280 degrees at 8 kt. The disturbance is moving rather slow because it is still embedded within the strong southwesterly monsoonal flow. Once it moves away from that region near Africa, it will be steered by the trade winds around the subtropical ridge, and the system will increase its westward or west-northwestward forward speed. By the end of the forecast period, a turn toward the northwest should begin as the cyclone reaches a weakness in the subtropical high. The NHC forecast is similar to the earlier one, and is in between the corrected consensus HCCA and the multi-model aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/2100Z 12.9N 19.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 31/0600Z 13.1N 20.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 24H 31/1800Z 14.0N 23.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 01/0600Z 14.7N 26.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 01/1800Z 15.5N 29.0W 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 02/1800Z 17.0N 34.5W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 03/1800Z 18.7N 39.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 04/1800Z 21.0N 43.0W 65 KT 75 MPH $$ Forecaster Avila
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