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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Discussion Number 68
2017-09-22 10:39:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT42 KNHC 220839 TCDAT2 Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Discussion Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 Since the last advisory, a small burst of deep convection has been observed near the center of Jose. The cyclone is still embedded within a dry environment and located over cold SSTs, so it will be a little surprising if the convection is maintained for an extended period of time this morning. The intensity of the post-tropical cyclone remains 45 kt, based on earlier ASCAT data, and these winds are likely occuring over open water well to the northwest of Jose's center. Surface observations on Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket, and Block Island indicate that tropical storm conditions are still occuring in some locations along the coast. The prior ASCAT pass also showed a wide area of tropical-storm-force winds just offshore of Cape Cod, and there is still some opportunity for these winds to reach the coast this morning. Therefore, the tropical storm warnings remain in effect, and the NHC will continue to issue advisories on Jose. No significant change has been made to the track or intensity forecast. All of the dynamical models remain in good agreement that Jose will remain trapped in weak steering flow while gradually spinning down for the next several days. Although the cyclone has been drifting west for the past 12 hours, a slow turn back toward the east should begin sometime later today and continue through at least day 3. The NHC forecast track is close to the TVCX and HCCA consensus aids. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical-storm-force winds, especially in gusts, are occuring within the tropical storm warning area. These conditions are expected to continue this morning. 2. Minor coastal flooding is possible along portions of the coast of southern New England during the next few days. Please see products issued by local National Weather Service forecast offices. 3. Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast, and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions for the next couple of days in these areas. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/0900Z 39.7N 68.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 22/1800Z 39.7N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 23/0600Z 39.5N 69.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 23/1800Z 39.2N 68.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 24/0600Z 38.9N 67.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 25/0600Z 38.5N 67.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Wind Speed Probabilities Number 68
2017-09-22 10:38:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 FONT12 KNHC 220838 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 68 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 39.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AUGUSTA ME 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PORTLAND ME 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CONCORD NH 34 3 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WORCESTER MA 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) BOSTON MA 34 5 3( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HYANNIS MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) NANTUCKET MA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PROVIDENCE RI 34 10 4(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) X(16) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW HAVEN CT 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HARTFORD CT 34 4 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW LONDON CT 34 7 4(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) ALBANY NY 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) MONTAUK POINT 34 10 5(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) X(17) ISLIP NY 34 4 3( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) NEWARK NJ 34 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NWS EARLE NJ 34 2 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PHILADELPHIA 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose (AT2/AL122017)
2017-09-22 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JOSE CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CAPE COD AND NEARBY ISLANDS... As of 5:00 AM AST Fri Sep 22 the center of Jose was located near 39.7, -68.7 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 990 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Public Advisory Number 68
2017-09-22 10:37:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 000 WTNT32 KNHC 220837 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Advisory Number 68 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122017 500 AM AST Fri Sep 22 2017 ...JOSE CONTINUES TO BRING TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS TO CAPE COD AND NEARBY ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.7N 68.7W ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Woods Hole to Sagamore Beach, including Cape Cod * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose was located near latitude 39.7 North, longitude 68.7 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving slowly toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). Jose is expected to meander well off the coast of New England for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next 48 hours. Jose is a large system. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 220 miles (350 km) from the center. A sustained wind of 43 mph (69 km/h) with a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h) was recently reported at an unofficial observing site on Block Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb (29.24 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue in the warning area this morning. SURF: Swells generated by Jose are affecting Bermuda and much of the U.S. east coast and will likely cause dangerous surf and rip current conditions during the next couple of days. For more information, please consult products from your local weather office. Rainfall: Jose is expected to produce additional rainfall accumulations of up to one inch across Cape Cod and the offshore Islands of Martha's Vineyard and Nantucket through early Saturday. When including rain that has already fallen, storm total accumulations could reach 6 inches on Nantucket. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Jose Forecast Advisory Number 68
2017-09-22 10:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 000 WTNT22 KNHC 220837 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JOSE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 68 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122017 0900 UTC FRI SEP 22 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH... INCLUDING CAPE COD * BLOCK ISLAND * MARTHA'S VINEYARD * NANTUCKET POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 68.7W AT 22/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 2 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT.......190NE 130SE 160SW 190NW. 12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 210SW 210NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 68.7W AT 22/0900Z AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.7N 68.6W FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 39.7N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 120SW 150NW. FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 39.5N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 39.2N 68.5W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 38.9N 67.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 38.5N 67.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.7N 68.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z $$ FORECASTER ZELINSKY
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