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Post-Tropical Cyclone Otis Forecast Advisory Number 32

2017-09-19 16:31:52| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 191431 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE OTIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152017 1500 UTC TUE SEP 19 2017 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 128.6W AT 19/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 128.6W AT 19/1500Z AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 128.2W FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 18.6N 129.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.7N 130.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 128.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON OTIS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory forecast otis

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Graphics

2017-09-16 16:55:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 14:55:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 16 Sep 2017 15:38:25 GMT

Tags: potential graphics tropical fifteen

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 1

2017-09-16 16:51:26| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 000 WTNT45 KNHC 161451 TCDAT5 Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152017 1100 AM AST Sat Sep 16 2017 Satellite images indicate that the area of low pressure located several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles has become better organized with curved banding features now better established. Since there is still no indication of a well-defined center and because tropical storm watches have been issued for portions of the Leeward Islands, NHC has initiated advisories on this system as a potential tropical cyclone. The initial wind speed is estimated to be 30 kt based on a blend of the Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB. The initial motion estimate is 280/19, but this is uncertain due to the lack of a clear center. A slower west-northwestward motion is expected during the next several days as a mid-level ridge to the north of the system weakens but remains nearly stationary. The NHC track forecast takes the system across the Leeward Islands in a few days and then near the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by the end of the forecast period. It should be noted that confidence in the track and forward speed of this system is low due to the spread in the models and the current lack of a well-defined center. The disturbance is expected to be in environmental conditions conducive for strengthening during the next several days as the shear is expected to be 10 kt or less while the cyclone moves over warm 29 deg C SSTs. These conditions should allow for at least steady strengthening, and the models unanimously show that trend. The NHC intensity forecast is conservative for now, but does show the system becoming a tropical storm later today and a hurricane by the time it reaches the Leeward Islands. KEY MESSAGES: 1. The disturbance is expected to intensify and will likely bring tropical storm and hurricane conditions as well as flooding rainfall to portions of the Lesser Antilles early next week. These conditions could also spread into the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico by mid week. Interests in these areas should monitor the progress of this system and follow any advice given by local officials. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/1500Z 12.2N 50.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 17/0000Z 12.8N 52.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL STORM 24H 17/1200Z 13.6N 55.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 18/0000Z 14.3N 56.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 48H 18/1200Z 15.0N 58.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 72H 19/1200Z 16.3N 61.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 20/1200Z 17.6N 64.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120H 21/1200Z 18.7N 67.3W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number discussion potential tropical

Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen Wind Speed Probabilities Number 1

2017-09-16 16:50:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 000 FONT15 KNHC 161450 PWSAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 50.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT MAYAGUANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) GRAND TURK 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) GRAND TURK 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) LES CAYES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) CAPE BEATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) PUERTO PLATA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 17(19) PUERTO PLATA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) PONCE PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 22(24) 23(47) PONCE PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 15(21) PONCE PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) AGUADILLA PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 18(19) 27(46) AGUADILLA PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) AGUADILLA PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) SAN JUAN PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 26(29) 25(54) SAN JUAN PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 15(24) SAN JUAN PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 8(12) VIEQUES PR 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 31(36) 20(56) VIEQUES PR 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 13(13) 14(27) VIEQUES PR 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 8(14) SAINT THOMAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 35(42) 16(58) SAINT THOMAS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 14(15) 13(28) SAINT THOMAS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) SAINT CROIX 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 34(43) 15(58) SAINT CROIX 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 17(18) 10(28) SAINT CROIX 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 6(13) SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 20(21) 36(57) 8(65) SAINT MAARTEN 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 21(24) 6(30) SAINT MAARTEN 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 3(12) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 31(34) 30(64) 4(68) ST KITTS-NEVIS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 21(30) 4(34) ST KITTS-NEVIS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 10(13) 2(15) BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 37(41) 22(63) 3(66) BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 15(15) 14(29) 2(31) BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) 1(14) ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 41(46) 21(67) 2(69) ANTIGUA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 17(17) 16(33) 2(35) ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 8(15) 1(16) GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 47(55) 14(69) 1(70) GUADELOUPE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 23(24) 10(34) 1(35) GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 9( 9) 6(15) X(15) AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 20(22) 19(41) 4(45) AVES 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 14(19) 2(21) AVES 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 2(10) DOMINICA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 41(50) 9(59) X(59) DOMINICA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 19(20) 6(26) 1(27) DOMINICA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 3(10) 1(11) MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 12(13) 31(44) 4(48) 1(49) MARTINIQUE 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 16(17) 3(20) 1(21) MARTINIQUE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9) 19(28) 4(32) X(32) SAINT LUCIA 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 9(10) 1(11) X(11) SAINT LUCIA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SAINT VINCENT 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 13(18) 2(20) 1(21) SAINT VINCENT 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) SAINT VINCENT 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) BARBADOS 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 14(17) 8(25) 2(27) X(27) BARBADOS 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) X( 7) BARBADOS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) GRENADA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) TRINIDADTOBAGO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) X( 5) PORT OF SPAIN 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number potential speed wind

Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Fifteen (AT5/AL152017)

2017-09-16 16:49:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE LESSER ANTILLES... As of 11:00 AM AST Sat Sep 16 the center of Fifteen was located near 12.2, -50.5 with movement W at 22 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

Tags: summary potential tropical fifteen

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