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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 13:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... As of 8:00 AM AST Mon Sep 5 the center of HERMINE was located near 37.9, -68.3 with movement N at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 32A
2016-09-05 13:52:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 800 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051152 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 800 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 ...HERMINE DRIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...37.9N 68.3W ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM AST (1200 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 37.9 North, longitude 68.3 West. The post-tropical cyclone is drifting toward the north near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn toward the north-northwest and northwest is expected to occur this afternoon and tonight. A northeastward motion is expected to begin by Tuesday night. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast for the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain near hurricane strength through tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin over portions of the warning area by this afternoon. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall associated with Hermine will remain mainly offshore through Wednesday. Rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches are possible across far southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states and expand northward along the coast of southern New England through tonight. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-05 10:58:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 08:58:31 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 05 Sep 2016 08:55:34 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 32
2016-09-05 10:57:21| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050857 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone with a cloud pattern more reminiscent of an extratropical low. However, moderate convection has been developing just north of the surface center in the northern semicircle during the past few hours within a region of increasing upper-level diffluence. Data from an earlier reconnaissance mission along with recent scatterometer data suggest that the intensity remains unchanged at 60 kt. The initial motion is a slow northward drift 010/03 kt. Water vapor imagery indicates that an upper-level low has developed east of the DelMarVa peninsula and is dropping to the south of Hermine's surface center. The latest model guidance is forecasting the surface and mid- to upper-level lows to rotate counterclockwise around each other for the next 24-36 hours before becoming vertically stacked by 36-48 hours. This cyclonic interaction has resulted in a significant westward shift in the global model tracks, especially by the UKMET and ECMWF models. As a result, the official forecast has been shifted a little to the west of the previous advisory track, but lies along the extreme eastern side of the guidance envelope in the event that the models shift back to the east since such complex interactions are difficult to forecast from cycle to cycle. The upper-level flow across Hermine is forecast by all of the global models to continue to become more difluent during the next 24 hours, which should aid in the development of deep convection near the low-level center. By 36-48 hours, the deep-layer vertical is expected to decrease from the current 45 kt to less than 10 kt, a pattern that is usually conducive for intensification. However, those favorable upper-level conditions will be negated by much cooler sea-surface temperatures of 23-25 deg C when Hermine will be north of the Gulf Stream at that time. The global models are in very agreement on both Hermine weakening and the 34-kt wind field steadily shrinking by 24 hours and beyond. Further weakening is expected through day 4, and both the ECMWF and GFS show Hermine dissipating by day 5 over the cold waters of the North Atlantic. The initial 50-kt wind radii have been adjusted based on data from the reconnaissance aircraft and an earlier ASCAT overpass. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 37.7N 68.3W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/1800Z 38.0N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/0600Z 38.6N 70.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 06/1800Z 39.0N 70.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/0600Z 39.7N 70.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/0600Z 40.7N 67.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/0600Z 43.0N 62.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 32
2016-09-05 10:56:19| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 050856 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 32 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 0900 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) X(10) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) PORTLAND ME 34 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) CONCORD NH 34 1 6( 7) 2( 9) 2(11) 1(12) 1(13) X(13) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 2 6( 8) 3(11) 3(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) WORCESTER MA 34 6 9(15) 4(19) 3(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 5 9(14) 3(17) 2(19) 2(21) 1(22) X(22) BOSTON MA 34 7 8(15) 4(19) 4(23) 3(26) 1(27) X(27) HYANNIS MA 34 15 14(29) 5(34) 5(39) 6(45) X(45) X(45) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NANTUCKET MA 34 24 14(38) 5(43) 6(49) 5(54) X(54) X(54) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 4( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PROVIDENCE RI 34 11 13(24) 5(29) 4(33) 3(36) 1(37) X(37) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 8 12(20) 4(24) 2(26) 2(28) 1(29) X(29) NEW HAVEN CT 34 8 12(20) 5(25) 2(27) 2(29) 1(30) X(30) HARTFORD CT 34 7 10(17) 5(22) 3(25) 1(26) 1(27) X(27) NEW LONDON CT 34 11 14(25) 5(30) 3(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) ALBANY NY 34 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 2 9(11) 3(14) 1(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) MONTAUK POINT 34 15 19(34) 5(39) 3(42) 4(46) X(46) X(46) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) ISLIP NY 34 10 14(24) 5(29) 2(31) 2(33) 1(34) X(34) ISLIP NY 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 7 12(19) 4(23) 1(24) 3(27) X(27) X(27) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 6 10(16) 4(20) 2(22) 1(23) X(23) X(23) NEWARK NJ 34 5 10(15) 3(18) 2(20) 1(21) X(21) X(21) TRENTON NJ 34 3 9(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) NWS EARLE NJ 34 6 11(17) 4(21) 1(22) 2(24) X(24) X(24) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 7( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) PHILADELPHIA 34 3 8(11) 2(13) 1(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) ATLANTIC CITY 34 6 9(15) 4(19) X(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) DOVER DE 34 2 8(10) 2(12) X(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) OCEAN CITY MD 34 4 7(11) 3(14) X(14) 1(15) X(15) X(15) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 4( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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