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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 23:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:55:42 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map
2016-09-04 23:55:42| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:55:42 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Graphics
2016-09-04 23:10:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:00:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 04 Sep 2016 21:06:35 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 30
2016-09-04 22:55:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 042055 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 500 PM AST SUN SEP 04 2016 Satellite images continue to show that practically all of the deep convection continues to occur well to the north and northeast of the low-level center of the cyclone. This indicates that Hermine remains a post-tropical cyclone. The current intensity estimate remains 60 kt based on continuity from the previous aircraft data. Another Air Force reconnaissance plane is scheduled to investigate the system in a few hours. The intensity trends shown by the global models suggest that a weakening trend should begin in 24 hours or so, and this is reflected in the latest official forecast. Visible satellite images show that the center has continued to track farther east than previous estimates, and the motion is a rather uncertain 070/4 kt. A shortwave trough is approaching Hermine from the west, and the associated vorticity is predicted to move just to the south of the post-tropical cyclone within the next day or so. This should cause Hermine to turn toward the north and northwest while moving rather slowly over the next 24-48 hours. After that time, Hermine should begin to move east-northeastward within the southern portion of the mid-latitude westerlies. The official track forecast is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF solutions, with the former model much farther east than the latter one. The forecast for Hermine has been coordinated with the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center. Although the NHC forecast track has been shifted eastward today, there is still a threat of tropical storm conditions, coastal flooding and large waves along portions of the mid-Atlantic and northeastern United States coast during the next couple of days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/2100Z 37.2N 69.1W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/0600Z 37.9N 69.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 05/1800Z 38.5N 70.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 06/0600Z 39.1N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 06/1800Z 39.6N 70.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 07/1800Z 40.2N 69.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 08/1800Z 41.5N 65.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 09/1800Z 43.5N 61.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 30
2016-09-04 22:54:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 042054 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 30 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 2100 UTC SUN SEP 04 2016 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 37.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT CAPE RACE NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 7(13) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 6(14) YARMOUTH NS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 6( 8) 8(16) 3(19) YARMOUTH NS 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 5( 9) 2(11) BAR HARBOR ME 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 5( 8) 5(13) 2(15) AUGUSTA ME 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 6(11) 3(14) 1(15) PORTLAND ME 34 X 3( 3) 4( 7) 4(11) 5(16) 3(19) 1(20) CONCORD NH 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) 3(15) 5(20) 2(22) 1(23) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 1 7( 8) 7(15) 3(18) 7(25) 3(28) 1(29) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) WORCESTER MA 34 3 10(13) 11(24) 5(29) 6(35) 2(37) 1(38) WORCESTER MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 3 9(12) 11(23) 4(27) 6(33) 1(34) 1(35) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) BOSTON MA 34 4 10(14) 11(25) 5(30) 8(38) 2(40) 1(41) BOSTON MA 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) HYANNIS MA 34 11 18(29) 12(41) 6(47) 8(55) 4(59) X(59) HYANNIS MA 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 5(12) 1(13) X(13) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 18 23(41) 12(53) 5(58) 8(66) 3(69) X(69) NANTUCKET MA 50 X 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17) NANTUCKET MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 8 16(24) 14(38) 5(43) 8(51) 2(53) 1(54) PROVIDENCE RI 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 4( 9) 1(10) X(10) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 5 15(20) 12(32) 4(36) 6(42) 1(43) X(43) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW HAVEN CT 34 5 15(20) 12(32) 5(37) 5(42) 1(43) X(43) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) HARTFORD CT 34 4 13(17) 11(28) 4(32) 6(38) 1(39) X(39) HARTFORD CT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NEW LONDON CT 34 8 18(26) 14(40) 6(46) 6(52) 1(53) 1(54) NEW LONDON CT 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW LONDON CT 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) ALBANY NY 34 X 4( 4) 6(10) 2(12) 4(16) X(16) 1(17) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 1 8( 9) 9(18) 3(21) 5(26) X(26) X(26) MONTAUK POINT 34 11 23(34) 15(49) 6(55) 5(60) 2(62) X(62) MONTAUK POINT 50 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 3( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) MONTAUK POINT 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 7 17(24) 13(37) 5(42) 5(47) 1(48) X(48) ISLIP NY 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 5 13(18) 12(30) 4(34) 4(38) 1(39) X(39) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 4 12(16) 10(26) 4(30) 4(34) X(34) X(34) NEWARK NJ 34 4 11(15) 9(24) 3(27) 5(32) X(32) X(32) TRENTON NJ 34 2 10(12) 8(20) 3(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) NWS EARLE NJ 34 5 12(17) 10(27) 4(31) 4(35) X(35) 1(36) ALLENTOWN PA 34 X 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) 3(16) X(16) X(16) PHILADELPHIA 34 2 8(10) 7(17) 2(19) 3(22) 1(23) X(23) ATLANTIC CITY 34 5 11(16) 8(24) 3(27) 4(31) 1(32) X(32) BALTIMORE MD 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) DOVER DE 34 2 6( 8) 5(13) 2(15) 3(18) X(18) X(18) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 4 8(12) 6(18) 2(20) 3(23) X(23) X(23) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 7(12) 5(17) 2(19) 3(22) X(22) X(22) PAX RIVER NAS 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 5( 8) 4(12) 2(14) 2(16) X(16) X(16) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) ELIZABETH CTY 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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