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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE (AT4/AL092016)
2016-09-05 19:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HERMINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... As of 2:00 PM AST Mon Sep 5 the center of HERMINE was located near 39.1, -69.2 with movement NW at 6 mph. The minimum central pressure was 997 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 70 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Public Advisory Number 33A
2016-09-05 19:39:24| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT34 KNHC 051739 TCPAT4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 33A NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 200 PM AST MON SEP 05 2016 ...HERMINE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...39.1N 69.2W ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM SE OF THE EASTERN TIP OF LONG ISLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * The coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor * New Haven to Sagamore Beach * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Hermine was located near latitude 39.1 North, longitude 69.2 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and a turn toward the north with decreasing forward speed is expected over the next day or two. On the forecast track, the center of Hermine will meander slowly offshore of the New England coast through Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph (110 km/h) with higher gusts. Hermine should remain near hurricane strength today. A gradual weakening trend is forecast to begin on Tuesday morning. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 230 miles (370 km) from the center. Nantucket Island recently reported a sustained wind of 39 mph (63 km/h) with a gust to 52 mph (83 km/h). The minimum central pressure estimated from Air Force reconnaissance aircraft observations is 997 mb (29.44 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue to spread over portions of the warning area later today and tonight. STORM SURGE: The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. Along the immediate coastline, the surge will be accompanied by large and dangerous waves. The water could reach the following heights above ground if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Coast of Long Island from Fire Island Inlet to Port Jefferson Harbor...1 to 2 feet RAINFALL: Hermine will produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 2 inches across eastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and the offshore islands, through Wednesday. SURF: Large waves generated by Hermine will affect the U.S. east coast from the mid-Atlantic states through New England. These waves are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, and significant beach erosion. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-09-05 17:30:54| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051530 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 Corrected for initial motion in second paragraph Hermine continues to exhibit a non-tropical cloud pattern with a broad curved band of showers to the north of the center. High-resolution visible images show multiple low-level swirls rotating around the broad center of the cyclone. An Air Force reconnaissance plane found highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface winds of 52 kt, and highest 850 mb flight-level winds were 69 kt, both north of the center. The initial intensity estimate remains 60 kt. Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the system should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this should result in a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is consistent with the trend depicted by the global models. These models, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up to a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center position from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of 325/5 kt, which is rather uncertain. Hermine is in a weak steering environment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward speed during the next 24 hours or so. As this ridge breaks down by Tuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the forecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine off to the east-northeast and northeast. The track forecast has been shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 38.8N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0000Z 39.2N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/1200Z 39.7N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/1200Z 41.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Forecast Discussion Number 33
2016-09-05 16:41:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 000 WTNT44 KNHC 051441 TCDAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1100 AM AST MON SEP 05 2016 Hermine continues to exhibit a non-tropical cloud pattern with a broad curved band of showers to the north of the center. High-resolution visible images show multiple low-level swirls rotating around the broad center of the cyclone. An Air Force reconnaissance plane found highest unflagged SFMR-observed surface winds of 52 kt, and highest 850 mb flight-level winds were 69 kt, both north of the center. The initial intensity estimate remains 60 kt. Although Hermine is currently over rather warm waters, the system should be passing over cooler SSTs by early Tuesday and this should result in a weakening trend. The official intensity forecast is consistent with the trend depicted by the global models. These models, especially the ECMWF, suggest that the system will open up to a trough by the end of the forecast period and this is also reflected in the official forecast. The center is not particularly well defined, and using a mean center position from the multiple swirls leads to a motion estimate of 030/5 kt, which is rather uncertain. Hermine is in a weak steering environment. A narrow mid-level ridge to the north of the cyclone should induce a continued northwestward motion at a slow forward speed during the next 24 hours or so. As this ridge breaks down by Tuesday night, the system should turn northward. Later in the forecast period, the mid-latitude westerlies should carry Hermine off to the east-northeast and northeast. The track forecast has been shifted west of the previous NHC track, but lies a little to the east of the multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 38.8N 68.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 06/0000Z 39.2N 69.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 24H 06/1200Z 39.7N 70.5W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 36H 07/0000Z 40.0N 70.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 48H 07/1200Z 40.5N 70.5W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 72H 08/1200Z 41.0N 69.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 09/1200Z 44.5N 62.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERMINE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2016-09-05 16:39:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 000 FONT14 KNHC 051439 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092016 1500 UTC MON SEP 05 2016 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 38.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 60 KTS...70 MPH...110 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) BURGEO NFLD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) PTX BASQUES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) EDDY POINT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) SYDNEY NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) SABLE ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) HALIFAX NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) X(10) YARMOUTH NS 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) 5(10) 6(16) X(16) MONCTON NB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) ST JOHN NB 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 4( 6) X( 6) EASTPORT ME 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 3( 8) X( 8) BAR HARBOR ME 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 4(11) 3(14) X(14) AUGUSTA ME 34 2 6( 8) 2(10) 2(12) 2(14) 1(15) X(15) PORTLAND ME 34 8 7(15) 3(18) 3(21) 4(25) X(25) X(25) CONCORD NH 34 10 10(20) 3(23) 3(26) 3(29) X(29) X(29) PORTSMOUTH NH 34 13 11(24) 4(28) 4(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) PORTSMOUTH NH 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) WORCESTER MA 34 21 16(37) 5(42) 3(45) 3(48) X(48) X(48) WORCESTER MA 50 X 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SPRINGFIELD MA 34 17 17(34) 4(38) 2(40) 3(43) X(43) X(43) SPRINGFIELD MA 50 X 3( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) BOSTON MA 34 24 14(38) 5(43) 4(47) 4(51) X(51) X(51) BOSTON MA 50 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) HYANNIS MA 34 49 12(61) 3(64) 3(67) 3(70) X(70) X(70) HYANNIS MA 50 3 9(12) 3(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) HYANNIS MA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) NANTUCKET MA 34 66 9(75) 2(77) 2(79) 2(81) X(81) X(81) NANTUCKET MA 50 13 13(26) 2(28) 1(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) NANTUCKET MA 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) PROVIDENCE RI 34 39 17(56) 4(60) 3(63) 3(66) X(66) X(66) PROVIDENCE RI 50 2 8(10) 3(13) 2(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) PROVIDENCE RI 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) BRIDGEPORT CT 34 20 20(40) 5(45) 2(47) 3(50) 1(51) X(51) BRIDGEPORT CT 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) NEW HAVEN CT 34 23 20(43) 5(48) 2(50) 4(54) X(54) X(54) NEW HAVEN CT 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 2( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) HARTFORD CT 34 20 20(40) 4(44) 3(47) 3(50) X(50) X(50) HARTFORD CT 50 X 4( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) NEW LONDON CT 34 35 20(55) 5(60) 3(63) 2(65) X(65) X(65) NEW LONDON CT 50 2 9(11) 3(14) 2(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) NEW LONDON CT 64 X 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) ALBANY NY 34 6 9(15) 4(19) 1(20) 2(22) X(22) X(22) POUGHKEEPSIE 34 10 13(23) 4(27) 2(29) 2(31) X(31) X(31) MONTAUK POINT 34 46 19(65) 4(69) 2(71) 2(73) X(73) X(73) MONTAUK POINT 50 3 16(19) 4(23) 2(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) MONTAUK POINT 64 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLIP NY 34 23 22(45) 5(50) 2(52) 3(55) X(55) X(55) ISLIP NY 50 X 5( 5) 2( 7) 1( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) NYC JFK AIRPRT 34 16 17(33) 5(38) 2(40) 2(42) X(42) X(42) NYC JFK AIRPRT 50 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NYC CNTRL PARK 34 14 15(29) 5(34) 1(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) NYC CNTRL PARK 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NEWARK NJ 34 12 14(26) 4(30) 1(31) 3(34) X(34) X(34) TRENTON NJ 34 8 11(19) 3(22) 1(23) 3(26) X(26) X(26) NWS EARLE NJ 34 13 14(27) 4(31) 1(32) 3(35) X(35) X(35) NWS EARLE NJ 50 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ALLENTOWN PA 34 4 9(13) 2(15) 1(16) 2(18) X(18) X(18) PHILADELPHIA 34 6 9(15) 3(18) 1(19) 2(21) X(21) X(21) ATLANTIC CITY 34 9 12(21) 3(24) 1(25) 3(28) X(28) X(28) BALTIMORE MD 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) DOVER DE 34 4 8(12) 2(14) 1(15) 2(17) X(17) X(17) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 1 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) WASHINGTON DC 34 X 3( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CAPE HENLOPEN 34 6 7(13) 3(16) 1(17) 2(19) X(19) X(19) OCEAN CITY MD 34 5 7(12) 2(14) 1(15) 1(16) X(16) X(16) PAX RIVER NAS 34 1 4( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) WALLOPS CDA 34 3 5( 8) 2(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12) X(12) NORFOLK NAS 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK VA 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) OCEANA NAS VA 34 X 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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