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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Discussion Number 14
2014-07-29 16:39:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 291439 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 GOES-15 shortwave infrared imagery shows that Hernan's surface circulation has become elongated (north to south) and ill-defined. The post-tropical cyclone has been devoid of significant deep convection for over 12 hours, and regeneration is not likely due to sea surface temperature of less than 24 deg C. The winds associated with the remnant low should continue to decrease, with dissipation of the system expected in a couple of days. The initial motion has been along a persistent west-northwest direction, or 300/13 kt, within the low- to mid-level flow on the periphery of the subtropical ridge to the northeast. This general motion should continue until the system dissipates in 48 hours. The NHC forecast is similar to that from the previous package and follows the TVCE consensus. This is the last NHC advisory on this system. For additional information on the remnant low of Hernan, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 23.5N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Roberts
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN (EP3/EP082014)
2014-07-29 16:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 29 the center of HERNAN was located near 23.5, -121.1 with movement WNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Public Advisory Number 14
2014-07-29 16:38:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 291438 TCPEP3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 800 AM PDT TUE JUL 29 2014 ...HERNAN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.5N 121.1W ABOUT 710 MI...1145 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL HEADING WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2014-07-29 16:38:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 000 FOPZ13 KNHC 291438 PWSEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 121.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Post-Tropical Cyclone HERNAN Forecast Advisory Number 14
2014-07-29 16:38:08| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 000 WTPZ23 KNHC 291438 TCMEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE HERNAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082014 1500 UTC TUE JUL 29 2014 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 121.1W AT 29/1500Z AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.5W FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.3N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 24.9N 123.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 25.4N 125.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.5N 121.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON HERNAN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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