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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOUGLAS Graphics

2014-07-05 17:15:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 15:02:21 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 15:06:35 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone DOUGLAS Forecast Discussion Number 28

2014-07-05 17:11:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 051510 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DOUGLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 28...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042014 800 AM PDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Corrected capitalization in last paragraph. Douglas remains devoid of deep convection, and since the sea surface temperatures are below 22 deg C, there is little likelihood of the system making a comeback. Therefore the system is being declared a remnant low, and this is the last advisory. The large circulation has been slow to spin down, but gradual weakening is anticipated with the cyclone expected to dissipate in about 72 hours. The initial motion continues northwestward at about 8 kt. Post-tropical cyclone Douglas should continue to be steered by the flow on the south side of a low- to mid-level subtropical ridge. The track guidance generally shows a turn toward the west-northwest with a slight decrease in forward speed over the next couple of days, and so does the official forecast. For additional information on the remnant low of Douglas, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 23.7N 120.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 24.4N 121.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 06/1200Z 25.4N 122.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 07/0000Z 26.1N 123.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/1200Z 26.5N 124.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Graphics

2014-07-05 17:11:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 15:03:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Jul 2014 15:05:47 GMT

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Forecast Discussion Number 19

2014-07-05 17:01:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 000 WTNT41 KNHC 051500 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1100 AM EDT SAT JUL 05 2014 Surface, satellite, and earlier NOAA reconnaissance aircraft data indicate that Arthur became an extratropical cyclone by 1200 UTC this morning. The earlier aircraft reports and recent wind observations show that the cyclone continues to weaken, and the initial intensity is lowered to 50 kt. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to weaken during the next day or so and winds are expected to be below gale force in 48 to 72 hours. The cyclone is now forecast to dissipate by the end of the forecast period. The cyclone is moving north-northeastward at about 21 kt. A north-northeastward to northeastward motion at a slower forward speed is expected during the next day or so. A turn toward the north and a further reduction in forward speed is forecast in a few days. The lastest track forecast is similar to the previous forecast through 48 hours, but has been adjusted westward thereafter to be in better agreement with the latest track guidance. This will be the last NHC advisory on Arthur. For additional information, including warnings, consult products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre at: weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html Statements on the post-tropical cyclone are also being issued by the Canadian Hurricane Centre under WMO header WOCN31 CWHX and in French at WOCN41 CWHX. For marine interests, additional information can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 45.0N 65.5W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 47.0N 63.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/1200Z 49.0N 60.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 07/0000Z 52.0N 56.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 48H 07/1200Z 56.0N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 72H 08/1200Z 60.5N 54.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 96H 09/1200Z 60.5N 52.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown/Pasch

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Post-Tropical Cyclone ARTHUR Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19

2014-07-05 16:58:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 000 FONT11 KNHC 051458 PWSAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014 1500 UTC SAT JUL 05 2014 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ARTHUR WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 45.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 65.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED 12Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ILE ST PIERRE 34 1 7( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) X( 9) BURGEO NFLD 34 3 16(19) 1(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) X(20) PTX BASQUES 34 8 32(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) X(40) PTX BASQUES 50 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) EDDY POINT NS 34 35 1(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) SYDNEY NS 34 21 8(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) X(29) SABLE ISLAND 34 7 1( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) X( 8) HALIFAX NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) YARMOUTH NS 50 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) MONCTON NB 50 22 X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) X(22) ST JOHN NB 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST JOHN NB 50 18 X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) X(18) EASTPORT ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) EASTPORT ME 50 4 X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BAR HARBOR ME 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) $$ FORECASTER BROWN

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