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Post-Tropical Cyclone NARDA Forecast Advisory Number 16
2013-10-10 16:33:48| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 101433 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE NARDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142013 1500 UTC THU OCT 10 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.1W AT 10/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 3 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 129.1W AT 10/1500Z AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 128.9W FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 16.2N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 130.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 129.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Graphics
2013-10-03 23:12:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 20:32:39 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Oct 2013 21:08:44 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-10-03 22:32:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 032031 TCDAT1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 JERRY LACKS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IS THEREFORE BEING DESIGNATED AS A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. THE INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 30 KT... ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE GENEROUS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS...AND VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO INCREASE TO NEAR 25 KT IN 48 HOURS. REGENERATION IS UNLIKELY AND BASED ON A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OPEN UP INTO A TROUGH AFTER 48 HOURS. INITIAL MOTION IS A LITTLE FASTER...060/12. POST-TROPICAL JERRY IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD AHEAD OF A BROAD MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES BETWEEN THE GFS PREDICTION AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON JERRY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 31.8N 38.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 04/0600Z 32.6N 36.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 04/1800Z 33.7N 34.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 05/0600Z 34.8N 32.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 05/1800Z 36.0N 30.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY (AT1/AL112013)
2013-10-03 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...JERRY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Thu Oct 3 the center of JERRY was located near 31.8, -38.7 with movement ENE at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone JERRY Public Advisory Number 20
2013-10-03 22:31:43| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 032031 TCPAT1 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 500 PM AST THU OCT 03 2013 ...JERRY BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.8N 38.7W ABOUT 790 MI...1270 KM WSW OF THE AZORES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT JERRY NO LONGER HAS SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...AND IT HAS BECOME A POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JERRY WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 31.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 38.7 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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