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Post-Tropical Cyclone JULIETTE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-08-30 04:36:17| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2013 000 WTPZ25 KNHC 300236 TCMEP5 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE JULIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102013 0300 UTC FRI AUG 30 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 114.8W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.7N 114.8W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 114.2W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 27.6N 116.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 28.5N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.7N 114.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Post-Tropical Cyclone IVO Forecast Discussion Number 14
2013-08-25 22:34:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 252034 TCDEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 IVO HAS BECOME A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH SOME WEAK SHOWER ACTIVITY LOCATED WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. THE SYSTEM HAS LACKED ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR ABOUT 12 HOURS...AND IS OVER SSTS OF AROUND 20 DEGREES CELSIUS. AS A RESULT...ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED TO RETURN...AND IVO IS BEING DECLARED A REMNANT LOW. THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25 KT AND IS IN AGREEMENT WITH A RECENT PARTIAL ASCAT-B OVERPASS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 340/7 KT. THE REMNANT LOW SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE UPDATED TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO...AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THESE RAINS COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING IN THESE AREAS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/2100Z 25.7N 115.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 26/0600Z 26.4N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 26/1800Z 26.7N 116.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 27/0600Z 26.6N 116.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 27/1800Z 26.5N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone IVO Wind Speed Probabilities Number 14
2013-08-25 22:33:30| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 252033 PWSEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 2100 UTC SUN AUG 25 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED 6 31 35 37 NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION 78 54 47 40 NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM 17 15 18 22 NA NA NA HURRICANE X X X 1 NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 X X X 1 NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 X X X X NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 X X X X NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND 25KT 20KT 20KT 20KT NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P ABREOJOS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone IVO (EP4/EP092013)
2013-08-25 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...IVO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... As of 2:00 PM PDT Sun Aug 25 the center of IVO was located near 25.7, -115.2 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone IVO Public Advisory Number 14
2013-08-25 22:33:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 252033 TCPEP4 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 25 2013 ...IVO BECOMES A REMNANT LOW... ...MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM INTO NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...25.7N 115.2W ABOUT 190 MI...310 KM WNW OF CABO SAN LAZARO MEXICO ABOUT 145 MI...235 KM S OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IVO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 25.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REMNANT LOW IS FORECAST TO SLOW DOWN TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY ON MONDAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1003 MB...29.62 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF IVO ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 5 INCHES...ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SPREAD INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BRINGING A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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