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Post-Tropical Cyclone DALILA Forecast Advisory Number 31
2013-07-07 10:32:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 070832 TCMEP4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE DALILA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 31 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042013 0900 UTC SUN JUL 07 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.0W AT 07/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 135 DEGREES AT 1 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.0W AT 07/0900Z AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 113.0W FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 16.8N 112.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 17.1N 112.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 18.0N 112.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON DALILA. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Graphics
2013-06-27 23:07:01| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2013 20:33:08 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 27 Jun 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Forecast Discussion Number 18
2013-06-27 22:32:31| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 272032 TCDEP3 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 COSME CONSISTS OF A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. PASSIVE WIND DATA FROM A SERIES OF SSM/IS OVERPASSES SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL-STORM FORCE. BASED ON THIS AND THE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ESTIMATED THAT COSME HAS DEGENERATED TO A REMNANT LOW PRESSURE AREA. THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/15. THE SYSTEM SHOULD GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE WEST DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS IT IS STEERED BY A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH. THE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO SLOW THEIR FORWARD SPEED BY 72-96 HR AS THEY APPROACH A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ON COSME BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/2100Z 20.9N 122.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 12H 28/0600Z 21.3N 124.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 28/1800Z 21.5N 127.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 29/0600Z 21.5N 130.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 29/1800Z 21.5N 132.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 30/1800Z 21.5N 137.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 01/1800Z 22.0N 140.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 02/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME (EP3/EP032013)
2013-06-27 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...COSME DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Jun 27 the center of COSME was located near 20.9, -122.6 with movement WNW at 17 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone COSME Public Advisory Number 18
2013-06-27 22:31:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 272031 TCPEP3 BULLETIN POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032013 200 PM PDT THU JUN 27 2013 ...COSME DEGENERATES TO A REMNANT AREA OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.9N 122.6W ABOUT 825 MI...1330 KM W OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 200 PM PDT...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE COSME WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.6 WEST. THE POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/H...AND A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SLOW WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF...LARGE SWELLS GENERATED BY COSME ARE AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM NEAR ACAPULCO TO LOS MOCHIS...AND THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS SHOULD SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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