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Post-Tropical Cyclone Fausto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-17 16:51:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 171450 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAUSTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112020 1500 UTC MON AUG 17 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE FAUSTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 125.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 130W 34 X 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Graphics
2020-08-16 22:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 20:34:12 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 16 Aug 2020 20:34:12 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Forecast Discussion Number 15
2020-08-16 22:33:10| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ45 KNHC 162033 TCDEP5 Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 The depression has been devoid of organized deep convection for the past 24 hours and at the moment completely lacks any convection. Therefore the depression has become post-tropical as a non-convective remnant low. A recent ASCAT overpass showed the vortex is winding down and the initial intensity has been lowered to 25 kt. There are no indications that the atmospheric conditions that led to the demise of the depression will change much over the next few days. Therefore, regeneration of the system appears unlikely. The remnant low of the depression is moving northwestward at 3 kt. The low is forecast to move slowly over the next few days before it dissipates, making a gradual turn to the west, then west-southwest and perhaps southwest. This is the last advisory on this system. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/2100Z 14.2N 134.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 17/0600Z 14.5N 134.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 17/1800Z 14.7N 135.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 18/0600Z 14.7N 136.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 18/1800Z 14.5N 137.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 19/0600Z 14.2N 138.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 19/1800Z 13.8N 139.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 20/1800Z 12.6N 140.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Latto
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E (EP5/EP102020)
2020-08-16 22:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DEPRESSION BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... As of 11:00 AM HST Sun Aug 16 the center of Ten-E was located near 14.2, -134.1 with movement NW at 3 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Public Advisory Number 15
2020-08-16 22:32:39| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTPZ35 KNHC 162032 TCPEP5 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP102020 1100 AM HST Sun Aug 16 2020 ...DEPRESSION BECOMES POST-TROPICAL... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 134.1W ABOUT 1690 MI...2720 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 AM HST (2100 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Ten-E was located near latitude 14.2 North, longitude 134.1 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A gradual turn to the west and then west-southwest at a slow forward speed is expected over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next few days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Latto
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