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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Public Advisory Number 7
2020-08-16 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 000 WTNT32 KNHC 160846 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Advisory Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122020 500 AM AST Sun Aug 16 2020 ...KYLE BECOMES EXTRATROPICAL OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...40.0N 58.9W ABOUT 545 MI...880 KM SW OF CAPE RACE NEWFOUNDLAND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 80 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle was located near latitude 40.0 North, longitude 58.9 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the east near 20 mph (31 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue through Monday before the system dissipates. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before the system dissipates by Monday night. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Wind Speed Probabilities Number 7
2020-08-16 10:46:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 FONT12 KNHC 160846 PWSAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KYLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KYLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 40.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 58.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Post-Tropical Cyclone Kyle Forecast Advisory Number 7
2020-08-16 10:45:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 000 WTNT22 KNHC 160845 TCMAT2 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KYLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122020 0900 UTC SUN AUG 16 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.9W AT 16/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 80 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 100SE 80SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.0N 58.9W AT 16/0900Z AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 39.9N 59.9W FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 40.4N 55.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 40.4N 51.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.9N 47.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.0N 58.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Graphics
2020-08-13 04:37:20| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 02:37:20 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 13 Aug 2020 03:31:57 GMT
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Forecast Discussion Number 17
2020-08-13 04:36:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 130235 TCDEP4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Elida Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092020 800 PM PDT Wed Aug 12 2020 Elida has been devoid of deep convection for more than 12 hours, and since it is over SSTs of 22-23 degrees Celsius, it is unlikely that organized deep convection will return. As a result, the system has become a post-tropical cyclone, and this will be the last NHC advisory on Elida. The initial intensity has been set at 35 kt, which is a blend of the latest Dvorak T- and CI-numbers from TAFB and SAB. The cyclone is heading toward even cooler waters and a more stable environment. Continued weakening is therefore expected, and the remnant low is forecast to dissipate by Friday morning. The initial motion estimate is 315/8 kt. A low- to mid-level trough located to the northwest of the cyclone has caused a break in the subtropical ridge. This has allowed the system to turn northwestward, and a northwestward to north-northwestward motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs on Friday. The global model guidance continues to suggest that the low-level center will decelerate as the mid-level circulation is pulled northward ahead of the aforementioned trough. The new NHC track foreast is similar to the previous advisory and again shows a slower forward motion than the global model trackers. This is the last NHC advisory on Elida. For additional information on this system please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0300Z 24.4N 120.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 13/1200Z 25.3N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 14/0000Z 26.6N 121.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 14/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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