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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Discussion Number 33
2020-08-05 10:38:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 000 WTNT44 KNHC 050838 TCDAT4 Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Discussion Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 Surface observations indicate that Isaias continues to gradually weaken over southeastern Quebec. There have been a couple of observing sites with marine exposure along the St. Lawrence River that have reported winds of around 35 kt within the past few hours. Therefore, the initial intensity is set at that value for this advisory. The post-tropical cyclone should continue to weaken today, and the system is expected to be absorbed by a larger extratropical low over eastern Canada on Thursday. The cyclone has begun to decelerate and is now moving 015/24 kt. The post-tropical cyclone should continue on a general north-northeastward motion with an additional decrease in forward speed over the next 12-24 hours. The updated NHC track forecast is similar to previous advisory and is near the middle of the tightly clustered dynamical model guidance. This is the last NHC advisory on Isaias. Additional information on the post-tropical cyclone can be found in products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center at: https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0900Z 47.5N 71.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 12H 05/1800Z 50.7N 70.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 24H 06/0600Z 53.3N 69.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 36H 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Wind Speed Probabilities Number 33
2020-08-05 10:37:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 050837 PWSAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 47.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias (AT4/AL092020)
2020-08-05 10:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN QUEBEC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... As of 5:00 AM EDT Wed Aug 5 the center of Isaias was located near 47.5, -71.8 with movement NNE at 28 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Public Advisory Number 33
2020-08-05 10:37:49| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 050837 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Advisory Number 33 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Wed Aug 05 2020 ...RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER EASTERN QUEBEC... ...THIS IS THE LAST NHC ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...47.5N 71.8W ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM NNW OF QUEBEC CITY MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 28 MPH...44 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias was located near latitude 47.5 North, longitude 71.8 West. The post-tropical cyclone is moving toward the north-northeast near 28 mph (44 km/h), and this general motion is expected with a decrease in forward speed through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is expected, and the winds are expected to drop below tropical-storm force this morning. The post-tropical cyclone is expected to dissipate over southeastern Canada on Thursday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km) to the northeast and east of the center primarily over and near the St. Lawrence River. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gale-force winds will continue over and near the St. Lawrence River this morning. Gale-force wind gusts are possible elsewhere over southeastern Quebec today. See products issued by Environment Canada for more information. RAINFALL: Rainfall accumulations of 1 to 3 inches are expected along and near the track of Isaias across southern Quebec. Even though the rainfall has ended, scattered minor to moderate and isolated major river flooding is ongoing across portions of the Mid-Atlantic with most rivers expected to fall below flood stage by later today. SURF: Swells generated by Isaias will affect the coast of the Northeast United States through this morning. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on the post-tropical cyclone can be found in products issued by the Canadian Hurricane Center at https://weather.gc.ca/hurricane/index_e.html $$ Forecaster Brown
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Isaias Forecast Advisory Number 33
2020-08-05 10:37:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 562 WTNT24 KNHC 050837 TCMAT4 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE ISAIAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 0900 UTC WED AUG 05 2020 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 71.8W AT 05/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 24 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......120NE 90SE 0SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 480SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 47.5N 71.8W AT 05/0900Z AT 05/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 46.4N 72.1W FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 50.7N 70.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 53.3N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 47.5N 71.8W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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