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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-29 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 16.4, -65.6 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1004 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 6
2020-07-29 22:42:09| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 069 WTNT34 KNHC 292042 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.4N 65.6W ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM SSW OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Montserrat, St. Kitts, and Nevis. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Anguilla * St. Martin and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.4 North, longitude 65.6 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will pass south of Puerto Rico later tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, near eastern Cuba and the southeastern Bahamas on Friday, and approach the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida Friday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north of the center. A wind gust of 52 mph (83 km/h) was recently reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions will continue across portions of the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through tonight. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area by late tonight or early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands and southeastern Bahamas: 4 to 8 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico through Thursday. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 800 PM AST. Next complete advisory at 1100 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Advisory Number 6
2020-07-29 22:41:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 052 WTNT24 KNHC 292041 TCMAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 2100 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MONTSERRAT...ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...CULEBRA * U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS * BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS * ANGUILLA * ST. MARTIN AND ST. BARTHELEMY * SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS * ST. MAARTEN * DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ENTIRE SOUTHERN AND NORTHERN COASTLINES * NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC * TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS * SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...AND THE RAGGED ISLANDS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND CUBA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.6W AT 29/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 75 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 20 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT.......240NE 0SE 0SW 120NW. 12 FT SEAS..400NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 65.6W AT 29/2100Z AT 29/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 64.9W FORECAST VALID 30/0600Z 17.5N 68.1W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...210NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 19.2N 71.0W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...180NE 40SE 0SW 120NW. FORECAST VALID 31/0600Z 20.9N 74.2W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT...150NE 40SE 0SW 100NW. FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 22.3N 76.9W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...140NE 50SE 0SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 23.6N 78.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 25.5N 80.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT...120NE 60SE 30SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1800Z 28.6N 82.1W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1800Z 31.5N 82.5W...INLAND MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 65.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 30/0000Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0300Z $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-29 19:46:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 17:46:47 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 15:24:56 GMT
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-29 19:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DISTURBANCE BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... As of 2:00 PM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 16.2, -64.7 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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