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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Public Advisory Number 5A
2020-07-29 19:40:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 200 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 000 WTNT34 KNHC 291739 TCPAT4 BULLETIN Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 5A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 200 PM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 ...DISTURBANCE BRINGING HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND PUERTO RICO... SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.2N 64.7W ABOUT 105 MI...165 KM S OF ST. CROIX ABOUT 180 MI...285 KM SSE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of the Dominican Republic has issued a Tropical Storm Warning along the south coast of the Dominican Republic west of Cabo Caucedo to the border with Haiti. The government of Antigua has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda. The government of France has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for Martinique and Guadeloupe. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra * U.S. Virgin Islands * British Virgin Islands * Montserrat, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla * St. Martin, and St. Barthelemy * Saba and St. Eustatius * St. Maarten * Dominican Republic entire southern and northern coastlines * North coast of Haiti from Le Mole St Nicholas eastward to the northern border with the Dominican Republic * Turks and Caicos Islands * Southeastern Bahamas including the Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, the Inaguas, Mayaguana, and the Ragged Islands A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Central Bahamas, including Cat Island, the Exumas, Long Island, Rum Cay, and San Salvador Interests in the northwestern Bahamas and Cuba should monitor the progress of this system. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude 16.2 North, longitude 64.7 West. The system is moving toward the west-northwest near 23 mph (37 km/h), and this general motion with a reduction in forward speed is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, the system will move near or just south of Puerto Rico later today and tonight, near or over Hispaniola on Thursday, and near or over eastern Cuba on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some increase in strength is forecast through tonight, with weakening likely on Thursday due to land interaction. Some restrengthening is possible by this weekend. A wind gust of 44 mph (71 km/h) was recently reported at the Luis Munoz Marin International Airport in San Juan. A wind gust of 44 mph mph (71 km/h) was also reported at St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands within the past few hours. In St. Maarten, a wind gust to 51 mph (81 km/h) was observed late this morning. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for additional development, and a tropical storm is forecast to form later today or tonight. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high ...90 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 275 miles (445 km) primarily to the north and northeast of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4, WMO header WTNT44 KNHC, and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are moving across portions of the Leeward Islands and will spread across the U.S. and British Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico this afternoon through Thursday morning. These conditions are forecast to reach portions of the Dominican Republic and Haiti within the warning area early Thursday, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Thursday afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch areas on Thursday and Friday. RAINFALL: The disturbance is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Across the northern Leeward Islands, British and U.S. Virgin Islands: 3 to 6 inches. Across Puerto Rico: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Across the Dominican Republic, northern Haiti, and Turks and Caicos: 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. Across the Inagua Islands: 4 to 8 inches, with isolated totals of 12 inches. These rainfall amounts may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides, as well as potential riverine flooding beginning today. Urban and small stream flooding is expected for the U.S. Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. SURF: Swells generated by Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will be affecting portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico during the next day or two. These swells are forecast to reach the north coast of the Dominican Republic, the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas tonight or Thursday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Graphics
2020-07-29 16:51:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 14:51:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 29 Jul 2020 14:51:52 GMT
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Forecast Discussion Number 5
2020-07-29 16:51:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 390 WTNT44 KNHC 291450 TCDAT4 Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 1100 AM AST Wed Jul 29 2020 Surface observations from the Lesser Antilles show that the broader circulation of the disturbance has become slightly better defined but a recent Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft was still unable to find a well-defined circulation. Therefore, the system has not yet become a tropical cyclone. The aircraft measured peak flight-level winds of 46 kt and several SFMR winds of around 35 kt, so the initial intensity remains 40 kt for this advisory. The system continues moving briskly west-northwestward at 290/20 kt. The forecast reasoning remains unchanged as a ridge to the north of the system is expected to steer the disturbance west-northwestward during the next couple of days. This motion should bring the system near or over Hispaniola on Thursday and near eastern Cuba Thursday night and Friday. The ridge is forecast to weaken by the weekend which should cause a reduction in forward speed. It still must be stressed that since the system lacks a well-defined center and remains in its formative stage, uncertainty in the specifics of the track forecast remain high in both the short and longer range. The latest NHC track foreast has been nudged slightly south of the previous advisory and lies between the latest ECMWF solution and the various consensus aids. Deep convection has consolidated and there is some evidence of banding over the northern and western portions of the large circulation. As a result, the system is still expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Some additional intensification is then possible before the system reaches Hispaniola on Thursday, but weakening is likely to occur while it interacts with land. After that time, the system's close proximity to eastern Cuba and an expected increase in southwesterly shear are likely to inhibit significant re-strengthening. The latest NHC wind speed forecast has been lowered from the previous advisory at 72-120 h. Given the expected land interaction and less than ideal upper-level environment it is best to remain conservative at this time. Interests in Hispaniola, the Bahamas, Cuba, and Florida should continue to monitor forecasts as changes to both the track and intensity are likely. Key Messages: 1. Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine will produce heavy rains and potentially life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides across the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely across portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico today and will spread westward to portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and the southeastern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos on Thursday and Thursday night. Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for these areas. Do not focus on the details of the track forecast, as rainfall and wind hazards will extend far from the center of the system. 3. The details of the long-range track and intensity forecasts remain more uncertain than usual since the system does not have a well-defined center and it is expected to move near or over portions of the Greater Antilles later this week. However, this system could bring some rainfall and wind impacts to portions of Cuba, the central and northwest Bahamas, and Florida later this week and this weekend. Interests there should monitor its progress and updates to the forecast over the next few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 15.8N 63.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE 12H 30/0000Z 16.9N 66.4W 45 KT 50 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 30/1200Z 18.5N 69.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 31/0000Z 19.9N 73.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND 48H 31/1200Z 21.4N 76.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...NEAR COAST 60H 01/0000Z 22.7N 78.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 01/1200Z 23.8N 80.2W 45 KT 50 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 26.3N 82.6W 45 KT 50 MPH 120H 03/1200Z 29.0N 83.5W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2020-07-29 16:50:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 000 FONT14 KNHC 291449 PWSAT4 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092020 1500 UTC WED JUL 29 2020 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE NINE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 63.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BEAUFORT MCAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) KINGS BAY GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) WAYCROSS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) MAYPORT NS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) GAINESVILLE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) THE VILLAGES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 5( 9) COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 4(11) FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) 5(10) 3(13) W PALM BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 7(14) 3(17) FT LAUDERDALE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 7(18) 3(21) MIAMI FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) 5(12) 2(14) HOMESTEAD ARB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 5(13) 2(15) MARATHON FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 16(16) 11(27) 2(29) MARATHON FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) MARATHON FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) KEY WEST FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 11(11) 12(23) 2(25) KEY WEST FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) KEY WEST FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) NAPLES FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 13(21) 5(26) NAPLES FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) 4(14) VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 13(16) 7(23) VENICE FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 9(19) TAMPA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 10(16) CEDAR KEY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 6( 8) ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 9(13) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) 9(15) GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 7(10) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) GRAND BAHAMA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) 3(11) 2(13) NEW PROVIDENCE 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 11(14) 1(15) 1(16) ANDROS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 19(23) 2(25) X(25) GREAT EXUMA 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 11(14) 8(22) X(22) X(22) SAN SALVADOR 34 X X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) MAYAGUANA 34 X 2( 2) 24(26) 6(32) X(32) X(32) X(32) GRAND TURK 34 X 14(14) 33(47) 1(48) X(48) X(48) X(48) HAVANA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) 1(11) ISLE OF PINES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) CIENFUEGOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) CAMAGUEY 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 7( 9) 1(10) X(10) GUANTANAMO BAY 34 X 1( 1) 5( 6) 9(15) X(15) X(15) X(15) LES CAYES 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4) PORT-AU-PRINCE 34 X 6( 6) 19(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) X(25) CAPE BEATA 34 X 7( 7) 5(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) PUERTO PLATA 34 X 55(55) 23(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) X(78) PUERTO PLATA 50 X 1( 1) 9(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) PUERTO PLATA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) X( 1) SANTO DOMINGO 34 X 74(74) 2(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) X(76) SANTO DOMINGO 50 X 10(10) 2(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) SANTO DOMINGO 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) PONCE PR 34 82 14(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) X(96) PONCE PR 50 1 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) AGUADILLA PR 34 42 50(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) AGUADILLA PR 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) SAN JUAN PR 34 77 15(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) VIEQUES PR 34 91 2(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) X(93) SAINT THOMAS 34 81 2(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) X(83) SAINT CROIX 34 98 X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) X(98) SAINT MAARTEN 34 95 X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) X(95) SABA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST EUSTATIUS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) BARBUDA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) ANTIGUA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) GUADELOUPE 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) AVES 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) PENSACOLA NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (AT4/AL092020)
2020-07-29 16:49:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS... As of 11:00 AM AST Wed Jul 29 the center of Nine was located near 15.8, -63.7 with movement WNW at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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