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Tropical Depression TWELVE Public Advisory Number 5
2016-09-15 16:36:29| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 151436 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 ...DEPRESSION CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.7N 30.4W ABOUT 440 MI...705 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 17.7 North, longitude 30.4 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a motion toward the west or west-southwest is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Blake
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 5
2016-09-15 16:35:59| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 151435 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1500 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 30.4W AT 15/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 30.4W AT 15/1500Z AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 29.8W FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 17.8N 32.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.9N 34.8W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.7N 37.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 17.4N 40.1W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 16.5N 45.2W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.7N 50.3W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.5N 55.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 30.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Graphics
2016-09-15 11:18:22| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 08:33:53 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 15 Sep 2016 09:08:40 GMT
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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 4
2016-09-15 10:32:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150832 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 500 AM AST THU SEP 15 2016 AMSR2 microwave data from a few hours ago indicated that the depression's center was about a degree west of the deep convection due to 20 kt of westerly shear. Since the cyclone's structure has not improved, and subjective Dvorak estimates have not changed from six hours ago, the initial intensity remains 30 kt. The westerly shear is expected to increase during the next 24 hours, and with a relatively drier air mass surrounding the cyclone, any strengthening during the next couple of days now appears less likely. After 48 hours, the shear is forecast to relax to some degree, but the global models disagree on exactly how much. Nonetheless, if the depression can survive the next couple of days, the environment should improve enough to allow for some strengthening by the end of the forecast period. The new NHC intensity forecast now holds the cyclone as a 30-kt depression for the next 3 days, followed by slight strengthening on days 4 and 5. This forecast is in best agreement with the statistical-dynamical SHIPS and LGEM models. The microwave data indicate that the depression has been moving a little faster toward the west at 275/14 kt. The Bermuda-Azores high is expected to steer the depression generally westward across the tropical Atlantic during the entire 5-day forecast period. A south-of-due-west motion is even possible on days 2 and 3, especially if the cyclone remains weak. With the exception of the GFDL, which shows more strengthening and is an outlier way to the north of the other models, the guidance envelope is relatively tight. To account for the apparent north bias of the GFDL, the updated NHC track forecast is a bit south of the TVCN multi-model consensus. The new forecast is also a little faster than and south of the previous forecast, especially on days 4 and 5. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 17.6N 29.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 17.8N 31.2W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 16/0600Z 18.0N 33.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 17.9N 36.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 17.6N 39.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0600Z 16.7N 43.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0600Z 16.5N 49.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0600Z 17.0N 53.5W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Berg
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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122016)
2016-09-15 10:32:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WITH LITTLE TO NO STRENGTHENING... As of 5:00 AM AST Thu Sep 15 the center of TWELVE was located near 17.6, -29.3 with movement W at 16 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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