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Summary for Tropical Depression TWELVE (AT2/AL122016)

2016-09-15 04:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Wed Sep 14 the center of TWELVE was located near 17.6, -27.5 with movement W at 14 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.

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Tropical Depression TWELVE Public Advisory Number 3

2016-09-15 04:57:57| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT32 KNHC 150257 TCPAT2 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 ...DEPRESSION MOVING WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.6N 27.5W ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM WNW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Twelve was located near latitude 17.6 North, longitude 27.5 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue for the the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will continue to move away from the Cabo Verde Islands. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slight strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours, and the depression could become a tropical storm on Thursday. On Friday, some weakening could occur as the cyclone encounters unfavorable upper-level winds. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Gusty winds are possible over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through tonight. RAINFALL: Locally heavy rains are expected over western portions of the Cabo Verde Islands through Thursday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Stewart

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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Advisory Number 3

2016-09-15 04:56:25| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 000 WTNT22 KNHC 150256 TCMAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 0300 UTC THU SEP 15 2016 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 27.5W AT 15/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 27.5W AT 15/0300Z AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.5N 26.9W FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.8N 29.4W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 18.0N 31.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.1N 34.3W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 17.9N 36.6W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.5N 40.7W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 17.4N 44.6W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 17.9N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.6N 27.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART

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Tropical Depression TWELVE Forecast Discussion Number 3

2016-09-15 04:56:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 000 WTNT42 KNHC 150255 TCDAT2 TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016 1100 PM AST WED SEP 14 2016 The convective pattern of the depression has improved some since the previous advisory with short curved bands having developed in all quadrants. In addition, the upper-level outflow has also improved and become more symmetrical. Satellite intensity estimates range from 30 kt from TAFB and SAB, 37-41 kt in recent AMSU estimates, and an ADT value of T2.8/41 kt. Due to the lack of persistent inner-core convection, the intensity is being maintained at 30 kt. The initial motion is 280/12 kt. A deep-layer ridge to the north of the cyclone is expected steer the system west-northwestward and then westward during the next 48 hours, accompanied by some decrease in forward speed as the ridge weakens slightly. By 72 hours and beyond, the ridge is forecast to build southward slightly, forcing the cyclone on a west-southwestward track over warmer waters. The new forecast track is basically just an update of the previous advisory track, and lies close to the consensus models. Some strengthening is expected during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the cyclone will encounter moderate to strong westerly vertical wind shear caused by a developing upper-level trough to the north of the cyclone. The new intensity forecast continues to show the system weakening back to a depression by 36 hours. On days 4 and 5, some slight re-strengthening is expected when the cyclone moves over SSTs near 28 deg C and into more favorable mid- and upper-level environments as shown by the ECMWF and UKMET models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 17.6N 27.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 17.8N 29.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 18.0N 31.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 18.1N 34.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 17.9N 36.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 18/0000Z 17.5N 40.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 96H 19/0000Z 17.4N 44.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 20/0000Z 17.9N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ Forecaster Stewart

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