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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 5
2013-09-30 04:32:11| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300232 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0300 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 47.0W AT 30/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 47.0W AT 30/0300Z AT 30/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 47.3W FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 27.1N 46.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 26.9N 45.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 26.6N 46.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 26.4N 46.8W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 27.0N 48.5W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0000Z 31.5N 45.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.0N 47.0W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/0900Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2013-09-29 23:09:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2013 20:38:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2013 21:05:45 GMT
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eleven
Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112013)
2013-09-29 22:37:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.2, -47.6 with movement NE at 10 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2013-09-29 17:08:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2013 14:34:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 29 Sep 2013 15:04:47 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2013-09-29 16:32:33| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 291432 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 AM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 THE DEPRESSION HAS A POORLY ORGANIZED PRESENTATION ON SATELLITE IMAGES THIS MORNING. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND DEEP CONVECTION IS LIMITED TO A FEW CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND A NARROW BAND OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS SUPPORT AN INTENSITY OF NO MORE THAN 25-30 KT...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT. AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO IMPART SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...AND THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THIS REGIME SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS. LATER ON...THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES SOME RELAXATION OF THE SHEAR SO SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN A DAY OR SO. THE LATEST GFS RUN DOES NOT SHOW THE SYSTEM WEAKENING IN THE LATTER PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITSELF FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THIS IS VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST INTENSITY MODEL CONSENSUS. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE SPREAD IN CENTER FIXES...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS AN UNCERTAIN 050/8. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO SLOW DOWN AND TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT. THE GFS AND ECMWF GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE HFIP STREAM 1.5 MODEL CONSENSUS SHOW THE TROPICAL CYCLONE EXECUTING A SMALL CLOCKWISE LOOP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND SO DOES THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST. BY LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...A LARGE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE NORTHEASTWARD. THE NEW NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...ALBEIT SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1500Z 26.0N 48.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/0000Z 26.7N 47.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 30/1200Z 26.8N 46.8W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 26.5N 46.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 26.5N 47.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 26.5N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 27.5N 47.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 29.5N 45.0W 40 KT 45 MPH $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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