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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 3
2015-09-28 16:51:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 281451 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 Satellite imagery indicates that the depression's overall cloud pattern has become better organized since yesterday despite persistent north- northwesterly shear of about 20 kt. The exposed low-level center is located near the northwestern tip of a curved band over the southeastern quadrant of the circulation. However, satellite data indicate that the low- to mid-level centers have recently become more separated. Dvorak intensity estimates are a consensus T2.0/30 kt from TAFB and SAB, so the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. Smoothing fixes over the last 12 hours yields an initial motion of 300/04, a little faster than before. The depression is embedded in low- to mid-level southeasterly flow around a ridge to its northeast, with northwesterly flow aloft. This synoptic pattern should only favor a slow northwestward motion for the next couple of days. After 48 hours, the cyclone should reach the western end of the low- to mid-level subtropical ridge and begin to respond to the southerly and southwesterly flow ahead of a baroclinic trough nearing the U.S. east coast. This change to the steering should result in a gradual northward turn with increasing forward speed. The new track forecast is a little left of the previous one at 48 hours and a little faster, close to a blend of the GFS and ECWMF model solutions. GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS model output indicates a continuation of moderately strong north-northwesterly shear over the cyclone for the next day or so. Even though other large-scale factors are generally conducive for intensification during this time, shear of this magnitude suggests that only slow intensification is possible. While the shear should decrease some by 36 hours, other environmental factors are not forecast to be as conducive and little further strengthening is indicated. Large-scale models depict the cyclone merging with a frontal zone offshore of the Mid-Atlantic or New England coasts by 96 hours, and the system is therefore shown to be post-tropical at that time. An alternate lower probability scenario is that the cyclone could race ahead of the frontal boundary and retain its tropical characteristics for a bit longer. The new intensity forecast is above the previous one through 24 hours and near the multi-model consensus but below the statistical-dynamical guidance after that time due to more reliance on the global models which show little further intensification. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/1500Z 27.8N 69.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 29/0000Z 28.1N 70.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 29/1200Z 28.5N 70.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 30/0000Z 29.1N 71.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 30/1200Z 29.6N 72.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 01/1200Z 32.0N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/1200Z 37.7N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 120H 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 28 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.8, -69.6 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1006 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 3
2015-09-28 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 281450 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1100 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.8N 69.6W ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 27.8 North, longitude 69.6 West. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow west-northwestward to northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the depression this afternoon. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 PM AST. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 3
2015-09-28 16:51:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 281450 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 69.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BOSTON MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) HYANNIS MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NANTUCKET MA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) PROVIDENCE RI 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) HARTFORD CT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) MONTAUK POINT 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6) X( 6) NEWARK NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) TRENTON NJ 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 7( 7) X( 7) BALTIMORE MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WASHINGTON DC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) X( 7) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 6(10) X(10) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) X( 7) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 3
2015-09-28 16:50:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT21 KNHC 281450 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 1500 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 69.6W AT 28/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 69.6W AT 28/1500Z AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 69.1W FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 28.1N 70.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 28.5N 70.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 29.1N 71.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 29.6N 72.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 32.0N 72.9W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 70SE 0SW 50NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 37.7N 72.9W...POST-TROPICAL MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 69.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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