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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-09-30 10:38:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 000 WTNT21 KNHC 300838 TCMAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 0900 UTC MON SEP 30 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 46.7W AT 30/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR 90 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 46.7W AT 30/0900Z AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.9N 46.9W FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.9N 46.1W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 20NW. FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 26.6N 46.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 40SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 26.4N 46.3W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.3N 47.2W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.4N 49.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 50SE 50SW 40NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 29.5N 48.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 32.0N 44.7W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.9N 46.7W NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2013-09-30 05:09:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2013 02:35:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 30 Sep 2013 03:05:45 GMT
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 5
2013-09-30 04:35:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 300235 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION HAS IMPROVED SLIGHTLY OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION REMAINS CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION...IT HAS LESS OF A SHEARED APPEARANCE. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 30 KT. THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS DECREASING SOME DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE DRIER AIR IMPINGES ON THE SYSTEM. THESE MIXED SIGNALS SUGGEST THAT ONLY A LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY DURING THAT TIME FRAME. BY THE END OF THE WEEK...AN INCREASE IN SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST AND THAT SHOULD INDUCE SOME WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST LIES CLOSER TO THE LOW END OF THE GUIDANCE. SATELLITE FIXES SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION HAS TURNED TO THE RIGHT...AS FORECAST...AND THE LATEST INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 065/8. A LARGE DEEP-LAYER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH ATLANTIC IS GRADUALLY MOVING EASTWARD...ALLOWING A RIDGE TO AMPLIFY TO THE WEST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL CAUSE THE DEPRESSION TO SLOW DOWN AND THEN MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN 3 TO 4 DAYS WHEN ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE SYSTEM. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/0300Z 27.0N 47.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 30/1200Z 27.1N 46.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 01/0000Z 26.9N 45.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 01/1200Z 26.6N 46.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 02/0000Z 26.4N 46.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 03/0000Z 27.0N 48.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 04/0000Z 29.5N 48.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 05/0000Z 31.5N 45.0W 35 KT 40 MPH $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112013)
2013-09-30 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Sep 29 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.0, -47.0 with movement ENE at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
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Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 5
2013-09-30 04:32:37| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 300232 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013 1100 PM AST SUN SEP 29 2013 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO MEANDER OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.0N 47.0W ABOUT 1130 MI...1815 KM ESE OF BERMUDA ABOUT 1190 MI...1920 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 47.0 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS... AND THE DEPRESSION COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON MONDAY. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- NONE. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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