je.st
news
Tag: eleven
Tropical Depression ELEVEN Graphics
2015-09-28 10:55:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 08:52:37 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 28 Sep 2015 08:54:50 GMT
Tags: graphics
tropical
depression
eleven
Tropical Depression ELEVEN Forecast Discussion Number 2
2015-09-28 10:53:06| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT41 KNHC 280852 TCDAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 Shortwave and enhanced BD-Curve infrared imagery show little change in the depression's cloud pattern this morning. Recently, however, a few bursts of deep convection are beginning to develop near the surface center. Subjective intensity estimates remain unchanged from the previous advisory as does the initial intensity of 30 kt. UW-CIMSS shear product and the SHIPS model both indicate 10-20 kt of northwesterly shear generated by a high amplitude upper-level ridge extending northward over the western Atlantic from the western Caribbean. Large-scale models show this upper-wind pattern persisting through day 3, which should inhibit any significant strengthening. Afterward, increasing southwesterly shear is expected to spread over the eastern seaboard and extreme western Atlantic waters in response to a deep-layer mid-latitude trough approaching from the west. Despite a rather harsh forecast upper-wind environment, the IVCN intensity consensus model shows slight strengthening to a tropical storm in 24 hours. Beyond the 96 hour period, the global models indicate either dissipation or the cyclone quickly becoming absorbed by the aforementioned baroclinic system. The official forecast is based on the IVCN consensus and indicates the cyclone merging with the frontal system in 5 days. The depression's center has been a bit difficult to find this morning, and has been moving erratically, drifting westward, or 275/2 kt. The cyclone should turn toward the west-northwest later today and continue in this general direction for a couple of days due to high pressure extending over the western Atlantic. After that time, a northward turn is forecast with an increase in forward speed around day 3 in response to the above mentioned frontal system approaching the east coast of the U.S. The NHC track forecast is nudged a little to the left of the previous forecast and sides with the TVCX multi-model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 28/0900Z 27.4N 68.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 28/1800Z 27.6N 69.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 29/0600Z 28.0N 70.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 29/1800Z 28.5N 70.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 30/0600Z 29.2N 71.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 72H 01/0600Z 31.2N 72.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 02/0600Z 36.2N 72.5W 30 KT 35 MPH 120H 03/0600Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
discussion
tropical
depression
Summary for Tropical Depression ELEVEN (AT1/AL112015)
2015-09-28 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED... As of 5:00 AM AST Mon Sep 28 the center of ELEVEN was located near 27.3, -68.9 with movement W at 2 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Tags: summary
tropical
depression
eleven
Tropical Depression ELEVEN Public Advisory Number 2
2015-09-28 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 000 WTNT31 KNHC 280851 TCPAT1 BULLETIN TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN ADVISORY NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 500 AM AST MON SEP 28 2015 ...DEPRESSION POORLY ORGANIZED... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...27.3N 68.9W ABOUT 420 MI...675 KM SW OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 27.3 North, longitude 68.9 West. The depression is moving toward the west near 2 mph (4 km/h). A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected Tuesday morning, and this general motion should continue through Wednesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, and the cyclone could become a tropical storm by Tuesday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Roberts
Tags: number
public
advisory
tropical
Tropical Depression ELEVEN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 2
2015-09-28 10:52:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 000 FONT11 KNHC 280851 PWSAT1 TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015 0900 UTC MON SEP 28 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT NEW YORK CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ATLANTIC CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) DOVER DE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) ANNAPOLIS MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) OCEAN CITY MD 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) RICHMOND VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) NORFOLK NAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) NORFOLK VA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4) X( 4) WALLOPS CDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5) X( 5) CAPE HATTERAS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) X( 7) MOREHEAD CITY 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) WILMINGTON NC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
Tags: number
speed
wind
tropical
Sites : [16] [17] [18] [19] [20] [21] [22] [23] [24] [25] [26] [27] [28] [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] next »