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Remnants of DORIAN Forecast Advisory Number 15
2013-07-27 22:32:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 000 WTNT24 KNHC 272032 TCMAT4 REMNANTS OF DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013 2100 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 54.7W AT 27/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 0SE 0SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 54.7W AT 27/2100Z AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 53.6W FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.9N 54.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. A DDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE
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Remnants of CHANTAL Graphics
2013-07-10 23:07:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 20:35:22 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 10 Jul 2013 21:03:43 GMT
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remnants
chantal
Remnants of CHANTAL Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2013-07-10 22:36:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 000 FONT13 KNHC 102035 PWSAT3 REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 2100 UTC WED JUL 10 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF CHANTAL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Remnants of CHANTAL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-07-10 22:35:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 000 WTNT43 KNHC 102035 TCDAT3 REMNANTS OF CHANTAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032013 500 PM EDT WED JUL 10 2013 AFTER FINDING SOMETHING RESEMBLING A CENTER EARLIER TODAY...THE SAME AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE SPENT SEVERAL HOURS INVESTIGATING THE STORM AND DETERMINED THAT CHANTAL NO LONGER HAS A CLOSED CIRCULATION. THE DATA SHOWED A VERY STRONG WIND SHIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AXIS OF A WAVE...WHICH IS NOW ALONG 73 OR 74 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE. THE REMNANTS ARE STILL ACCOMPANIED BY A LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER AND STRONG WINDS BETWEEN 40 TO 45 KNOTS EAST OF THE WAVE AXIS. EVEN THOUGH CHANTAL HAS DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE...THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS OVER HISPANIOLA WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THIS WEATHER WILL SPREAD WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD OVER JAMAICA AND EASTERN CUBA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS SO. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL MOVING INTO THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND NEAR THE FLORIDA PENINSULA IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG WIND SHEAR IN THE AREA OF THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN...CUBA AND FLORIDA WHERE THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL ARE HEADED. THIS WILL PROBABLY INHIBIT ANY RE-DEVELOPMENT. NEVERTHELESS...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR ANY SIGNS OF REDEVELOPMENT...AND AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANES ARE SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...IF NECESSARY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/2100Z 16.5N 73.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...REMNANTS OF CHANTAL 12H 11/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA
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Summary for Remnants of CHANTAL (AT3/AL032013)
2013-07-10 22:35:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CHANTAL DEGENERATED INTO A WAVE... ...COULD STILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS... As of 5:00 PM EDT Wed Jul 10 the center of CHANTAL was located near 16.5, -73.7 with movement W at 23 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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remnants
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at3al032013
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