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Remnants of GABRIELLE Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-09-06 04:45:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT42 KNHC 060245 TCDAT2 REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE SMALL CIRCULATION OF GABRIELLE HAS DISSIPATED AS IT INTERACTED WITH THE LANDMASS OF HISPANIOLA. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THAT A BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS SITUATED BETWEEN PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA...HOWEVER THE REMAINING DEEP CONVECTION IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST...OVER AND SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE MOVING GENERALLY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AND NORTHWARD DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND INTERACTING WITH OR POSSIBLY MERGING WITH THE LARGE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER CURRENTLY LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE GREATER ANTILLES. BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK THE GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST OF BERMUDA AHEAD OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH...POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE. WHILE THE DETAILS OF THE FORMATION OF THIS LOW ARE UNCLEAR AT THIS TIME...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN A THREAT FROM THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND USERS SHOULD REFER TO PRODUCTS FROM THE NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICE IN SAN JUAN FOR MORE INFORMATION ON THAT HAZARD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0300Z 19.0N 68.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 06/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Summary for Remnants of GABRIELLE (AT2/AL072013)
2013-09-06 04:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GABRIELLE DISSIPATES... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... As of 11:00 PM AST Thu Sep 5 the center of GABRIELLE was located near 19.0, -68.5 with movement NNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of GABRIELLE Public Advisory Number 6
2013-09-06 04:42:05| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 000 WTNT32 KNHC 060241 TCPAT2 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 1100 PM AST THU SEP 05 2013 ...GABRIELLE DISSIPATES... ...HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.0N 68.5W ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM NNW OF PUNTA CANA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT GABRIELLE NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER AND IS NO LONGER A TROPICAL CYCLONE. AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST AROUND 9 MPH...15 KM/H. A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES OVER MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Remnants of GABRIELLE Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-09-06 04:42:03| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013 000 FONT12 KNHC 060241 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 68.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 00Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Remnants of GABRIELLE Forecast Advisory Number 6
2013-09-06 04:41:31| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013 000 WTNT22 KNHC 060241 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF GABRIELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072013 0300 UTC FRI SEP 06 2013 SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 68.5W AT 06/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.0N 68.5W AT 06/0300Z AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 68.4W FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.0N 68.5W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON GABRIELLE. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN
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