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Remnants of INGRID Forecast Advisory Number 20
2013-09-17 10:38:13| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT25 KNHC 170838 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF INGRID FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.9W AT 17/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.9W AT 17/0900Z AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.7N 99.7W FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of MANUEL Graphics
2013-09-16 11:12:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 08:34:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 16 Sep 2013 09:05:29 GMT
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manuel
remnants
Summary for Remnants of MANUEL (EP3/EP132013)
2013-09-16 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...MANUEL DISSIPATES OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... As of 2:00 AM PDT Mon Sep 16 the center of MANUEL was located near 20.6, -105.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of MANUEL Public Advisory Number 12
2013-09-16 10:34:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ33 KNHC 160834 TCPEP3 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF MANUEL ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 ...MANUEL DISSIPATES OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINS TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 105.3W ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM W OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO ABOUT 335 MI...540 KM ESE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO. AT 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC... THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH... LONGITUDE 105.3 WEST. THE REMNANTS ARE MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1002 MB...29.59 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE MEXICAN STATES OF GUERRERO AND MICHOACAN...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE. RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...JALISCO...AND NAYARIT. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN REGIONS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MANUEL ARE STILL AFFECTING PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AND MANZANILLO. THESE SWELLS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION OCCURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of MANUEL Forecast Discussion Number 12
2013-09-16 10:34:12| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 000 WTPZ43 KNHC 160834 TCDEP3 REMNANTS OF MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132013 200 AM PDT MON SEP 16 2013 SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT MANUEL NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AT THE SURFACE. THE CYCLONE HAS DISSIPATED NEAR THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT LOW- TO MID-LEVEL VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL SHOULD DRIFT WESTWARD AND MOVE OFF THE COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA FOR A FEW DAYS. THE GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS THAT A WEAK SURFACE LOW COULD FORM IN THIS AREA IN A FEW DAYS...AND THE REMNANTS WILL BE MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. EVEN THOUGH MANUEL HAS DISSIPATED...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO FOR ANOTHER DAY OR SO. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANTS OF MANUEL PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 20.6N 105.3W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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