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Remnants of INGRID Graphics
2013-09-17 11:13:14| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 08:40:40 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 17 Sep 2013 09:06:30 GMT
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Remnants of INGRID Forecast Discussion Number 20
2013-09-17 10:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT45 KNHC 170839 TCDAT5 REMNANTS OF INGRID DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES OVER PARTS OF EASTERN MEXICO...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT THE CENTER AND CIRCULATION OF INGRID HAVE BEEN DESTROYED BY THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THEREFORE...INGRID HAS DISSIPATED...AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL ADVISORY. EVEN THOUGH INGRID HAS DISSIPATED...MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN MEXICO FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF DAYS... PROLONGING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS...FLASH FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES IN THE AREA. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 17/0900Z 23.7N 99.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 12H 17/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Remnants of INGRID Wind Speed Probabilities Number 20
2013-09-17 10:39:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 000 FONT15 KNHC 170839 PWSAT5 REMNANTS OF INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 0900 UTC TUE SEP 17 2013 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS...25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Summary for Remnants of INGRID (AT5/AL102013)
2013-09-17 10:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...INGRID DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 the center of INGRID was located near 23.7, -99.9 with movement W at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1008 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
Remnants of INGRID Public Advisory Number 20
2013-09-17 10:39:18| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 000 WTNT35 KNHC 170839 TCPAT5 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF INGRID ADVISORY NUMBER 20 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102013 400 AM CDT TUE SEP 17 2013 ...INGRID DISSIPATES OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING STILL POSSIBLE... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.7N 99.9W ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM W OF CIUDAD VICTORIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE THAT INGRID NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION AND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF EASTERN MEXICO. AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF INGRID WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 99.9 WEST AND WERE MOVING WESTWARD AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 25 MPH...35 KM/H... WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...THE REMNANTS OF INGRID ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF RAIN OVER A LARGE PART OF EASTERN MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 25 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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