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Remnants of FERNAND Graphics
2013-08-26 23:26:04| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2013 20:44:51 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 26 Aug 2013 21:22:46 GMT
Remnants of FERNAND Forecast Discussion Number 6
2013-08-26 22:43:58| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 000 WTNT41 KNHC 262043 TCDAT1 REMNANTS OF FERNAND DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 SATELLITE AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF FERNAND HAS DISSIPATED OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF EASTERN MEXICO. THEREFORE...THIS WILL BE THE LAST NHC ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS SYSTEM STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND CENTRAL MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...AND THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 26/2100Z 20.6N 98.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 27/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Remnants of FERNAND Wind Speed Probabilities Number 6
2013-08-26 22:43:34| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2013 000 FONT11 KNHC 262043 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF FERNAND WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 2100 UTC MON AUG 26 2013 AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF REMNANTS OF FERNAND WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT. - - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - - VALID TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - DISSIPATED NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROP DEPRESSION NA NA NA NA NA NA NA TROPICAL STORM NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HURRICANE NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HUR CAT 1 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 2 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 3 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 4 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA HUR CAT 5 NA NA NA NA NA NA NA - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - FCST MAX WIND NA NA NA NA NA NA NA II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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Summary for Remnants of FERNAND (AT1/AL062013)
2013-08-26 22:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...FERNAND DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Mon Aug 26 the center of FERNAND was located near 20.6, -98.5 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of FERNAND Public Advisory Number 6
2013-08-26 22:43:00| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 000 WTNT31 KNHC 262042 TCPAT1 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF FERNAND ADVISORY NUMBER 6 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062013 400 PM CDT MON AUG 26 2013 ...FERNAND DISSIPATES OVER MEXICO... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.6N 98.5W ABOUT 75 MI...125 KM WSW OF TUXPAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ AT 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...THE REMNANTS OF FERNAND WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 98.5 WEST. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH FERNAND ARE MOVING GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H...AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM ARE NEAR 30 MPH...45 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES. HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL...STORM-TOTAL AMOUNTS FROM FERNAND AND ITS REMNANTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER VERACRUZ...HIDALGO...NORTHERN PUEBLA...SOUTHERN TAMAULIPAS...AND EASTERN SAN LUIS POTOSI MEXICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS NEAR 15 INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- THIS IS THE LAST PUBLIC ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA... PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE. $$ FORECASTER BROWN
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