je.st

Home › remnants

Tag: remnants

Remnants of Priscilla Public Advisory Number 4

2019-10-21 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 210234 TCPEP4 BULLETIN Remnants Of Priscilla Advisory Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP192019 1000 PM CDT Sun Oct 20 2019 ...PRISCILLA DISSIPATES OVER SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO... ...HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO CONTINUE... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.0N 104.7W ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM ESE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Priscilla were located near latitude 20.0 North, longitude 104.7 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 10 mph (17 km/h). Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Priscilla are expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches, with local amounts to 15 inches, across portions of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, and Michoacan in southwestern Mexico through Tuesday night. This rainfall could produce flash flooding and mudslides within steep terrain. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Priscilla. $$ Forecaster Cangialosi

Tags: number public advisory remnants

Remnants of Priscilla Wind Speed Probabilities Number 4

2019-10-21 04:34:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 210234 PWSEP4 REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number speed wind probabilities

Remnants of Priscilla Forecast Advisory Number 4

2019-10-21 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 210233 TCMEP4 REMNANTS OF PRISCILLA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192019 0300 UTC MON OCT 21 2019 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 50 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 9 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 104.7W AT 21/0300Z AT 21/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 104.5W FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 104.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON PRISCILLA. $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI

Tags: number advisory forecast remnants

Remnants of Fifteen Forecast Discussion Number 7

2019-10-16 10:33:47| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)

Issued at 500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019 000 WTNT45 KNHC 160833 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Fifteen Discussion Number 7 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL152019 500 AM AST Wed Oct 16 2019 Satellite images indicate that the surface circulation of the system has become rather elongated north-to-south, with only a few weak swirls in the circulation envelope, and has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. Thus it is no longer a tropical cyclone, and this is the last advisory. The winds are lowered to 25 kt, matching the TAFB classification. The remnants of the cyclone are expected to move northwestward during the next few days. There is a slight chance of regeneration, as suggested by the ECMWF model and some of its ensemble members due to a trough interaction, but that's considered unlikely at this point. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 16/0900Z 17.3N 24.1W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 16/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Tags: number discussion forecast fifteen