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Remnants of Beryl Graphics
2018-07-09 04:41:35| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 02:41:35 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 09 Jul 2018 03:25:31 GMT
Remnants of Beryl Forecast Discussion Number 15
2018-07-09 04:40:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT42 KNHC 090240 TCDAT2 Remnants Of Beryl Discussion Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 The remains of the center of Beryl have crossed Dominica during the past few hours, accompanied by a disorganized area of convection. Radar and surface observations continue to show that the system is an open wave. There have been no observations of sustained tropical-storm-force winds from Dominica or Guadeloupe, so the initial intensity is decreased to a probably generous 35 kt. In the short term, increasing vertical wind shear should cause continued weakening of the system, with the remains of the center dissipating in the next 12 h. Between 72-120 h, there may be an opportunity for the remnants of Beryl to regenerate into a tropical cyclone when the system moves through the Bahamas and into the southwestern Atlantic. However, due to a lack of agreement by the dynamical models and the uncertainty about how the tropical wave will be disrupted by passage over Hispaniola, the chances of regeneration are currently in the low category. The initial motion estimate is 290/23 kt. The remnants of Beryl should maintain this rapid west-northwestward motion for the next 12 hours as they move through the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the south of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. This is the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. Key Messages: 1. As the tropical wave moves across the northeastern Caribbean Sea, strong gusty winds and locally heavy rains are possible across the Leeward Islands tonight and Monday, and these conditions expected to spread across the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola by Monday night. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 15.8N 62.4W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL WAVE 12H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Summary for Remnants of Beryl (AT2/AL022018)
2018-07-09 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REMNANTS OF BERYL NOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 PM AST Sun Jul 8 the center of Beryl was located near 15.8, -62.4 with movement WNW at 26 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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at2al022018
Remnants of Beryl Public Advisory Number 15
2018-07-09 04:40:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 000 WTNT32 KNHC 090240 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Beryl Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022018 1100 PM AST Sun Jul 08 2018 ...REMNANTS OF BERYL NOW OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... ...THIS WILL BE THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...15.8N 62.4W ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM WNW OF DOMINICA ABOUT 305 MI...490 KM SE OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Meteorological Service of Barbados has discontinued the Tropical Storm Watch for Dominica. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warning in effect. Interests in the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti should monitor the progress of the remnants of Beryl. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the remnants of Beryl were located near latitude 15.8 North, longitude 62.4 West. The remnants are moving west-northwestward near 26 mph (43 km/h), and this general motion should continue through Monday. On the forecast track, the remnants of Beryl will move across the northeastern Caribbean Sea to the south of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Wind associated with the remnants are expected to drop below gale-force later tonight or Monday morning. However, environmental conditions are expected to become somewhat conducive for regeneration of a tropical cyclone in a few days when the remnants of Beryl are forecast to move across the Bahamas and the western Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) to the north of the center. La Desirade Island near Guadeloupe recently reported a sustained wind of 35 mph (57 km/h) and a wind gust of 46 mph (78 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Strong gusty winds are possible across the Leeward Islands tonight, and in the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Monday and Monday night. RAINFALL: Beryl is expected to produce storm total rain accumulations of 2 to 3 inches through Tuesday across the Leeward and the Virgin Islands, as well as Puerto Rico. Local amounts up to 5 inches are possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of Beryl Wind Speed Probabilities Number 15
2018-07-09 04:40:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 000 FONT12 KNHC 090240 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF BERYL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022018 0300 UTC MON JUL 09 2018 AT 0300Z THE REMNANTS OF BERYL WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.8 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 62.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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