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Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-08-15 12:04:51| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 151004 CCA TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CORRECTED TO INCLUDE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 84.6W INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT31 KNHC/MIATCPAT1...AT 15/1200Z NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Remnants of Fred Graphics
2021-08-15 11:03:07| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 09:03:07 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 09:03:07 GMT
Remnants of Fred Forecast Discussion Number 23
2021-08-15 10:59:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT41 KNHC 150859 TCDAT1 Remnants Of Fred Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 The remnants of Fred have been undergoing some noticeable changes early this morning, with one of those features being a curved band of deep convection having developed in the northeastern quadrant of the larger cyclonic envelope. A low-level jet (925-850 mb) was noted in the 0000 UTC upper-air air data and in the Key West VAD wind profile radar data late last night and early this morning. That speed maximum produced 2-hours worth of 34-kt and higher 10-meter winds at the Sand Key (SANF1) C-MAN station south of Key West, and that is the basis for the increasing the intensity to 35 kt for this advisory. That speed maximum is also likely responsible for the large increase in convection north of the Dry Tortugas, which also has helped to spin up a small mesovortex that passed over buoy 42026 between 0500-0600 UTC, causing the pressure to decrease 3.6 mb in one hour. That small-scale feature is moving westward and could become the the low-level center farther to the north of the current alleged center within the next few hours. The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 330/07 kt. The system is expected to move north-northwestward or northwestward today and tonight through a narrow weakness in the subtropical ridge located between 85W-88W longitude based on 0000Z upper-air data. The system is forecast to turn northward on Monday as it nears the northern Gulf of coast and comes under the influence of a mid- to upper-level trough forecast to drop southward over the western Gulf of Mexico. The new NHC track forecast had to be shifted farther to the east of the previous advisory, and subsequent forecast tracks may have to be shifted even further east if a new center develops farther to the north or northeast as per what recent satellite and buoy data suggest. The official forecasts track lies a little to the left of the tightly packed consensus track models. Upper-level winds are expected to remain marginally conducive for strengthening due to at least some modest southwesterly wind shear affecting the cyclone for the next 48 hours. After landfall, Fred is forecast to weaken rapidly and the global models indicate the circulation should dissipate by around 96 hours. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Today through Monday, heavy rainfall could lead to areal, urban, and small stream flooding impacts, and cause new and renewed river flooding across southern Florida, the Big Bend, and Panhandle. From Monday onward, heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into other portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. 2. Fred is forecast to regenerate as a tropical cyclone over the Gulf of Mexico later today, and bring a risk of tropical storm conditions to portions of the northern Gulf coast, especially from coastal Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle beginning Monday night. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for a portion of this area later this morning. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0900Z 24.4N 84.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE 24H 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 60H 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 72H 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 96H 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Summary for Remnants of Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-15 10:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... As of 5:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 24.4, -84.6 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1011 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 23
2021-08-15 10:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150855 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED TRYING TO RE-ORGANIZE INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN GULF COAST... SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...24.4N 84.6W ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF THE DRY TORTUGAS ABOUT 450 MI...725 KM SSE OF PENSACOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for portions of the north-central Gulf coast from the Alabama/Florida border eastward to Ochlockonee River, Florida. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Alabama/Florida border to Ochlockonee Florida A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Alabama to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. A Tropical Storm Warning will likely be required for portions of the Tropical Storm Watch area later this morning. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 24.4 North, longitude 84.6 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through tonight, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico today, cross the east-central and northern Gulf of Mexico tonight and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night or early Tuesday morning. Surface observations indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical storm later today, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico until it makes landfall. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface observations is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The system is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through Monday Keys and southern Florida... 3 to 5 inches with isolated storm totals of 8 inches are anticipated. Through Tuesday The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle... 4 to 8 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 12 inches are expected. South-Central and Southeast Alabama through Georgia and the Western Carolinas... 3 to 6 inches with isolated maximum storm totals of 9 inches are expected due to the combination of Fred and a preceding frontal boundary. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida, southern Alabama, portions of Georgia, and the western Carolinas could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. STORM SURGE: A storm surge will raise water levels above normal tide by as much as the following amounts in areas of onshore flow... Mouth of the Pearl River, LA to Suwannee River, FL including Mobile Bay, Pensacola Bay, Choctawhatchee Bay and Saint Andrew Bay... 1-3 ft Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area by late Monday night or Tuesday morning. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible today into early Monday, near the west coast of Florida and the coastal Florida Panhandle. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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