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Remnants of Fred Wind Speed Probabilities Number 23
2021-08-15 10:55:20| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 FONT11 KNHC 150855 PWSAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 AT 0900Z THE REMNANTS OF FRED WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 24.4 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 84.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) X( 4) X( 4) NAPLES FL 34 X 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) VENICE FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) TAMPA FL 34 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) CEDAR KEY FL 34 X 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 2( 7) X( 7) X( 7) ST MARKS FL 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 3( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) APALACHICOLA 34 X 5( 5) 14(19) 6(25) 1(26) X(26) X(26) GFMX 290N 850W 34 X 10(10) 15(25) 3(28) 1(29) X(29) X(29) PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 5( 5) 18(23) 12(35) 2(37) X(37) X(37) PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) DESTIN EXEC AP 34 X X( X) 8( 8) 21(29) 5(34) X(34) X(34) DESTIN EXEC AP 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) X( 6) COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) X(10) X(10) BIRMINGHAM AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 8(11) X(11) X(11) MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 12(20) X(20) X(20) WHITING FLD FL 34 X X( X) 5( 5) 21(26) 7(33) X(33) X(33) WHITING FLD FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 4( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) WHITING FLD FL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) PENSACOLA FL 34 X X( X) 7( 7) 20(27) 6(33) X(33) X(33) PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 11(11) 41(52) 10(62) X(62) X(62) X(62) GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) 11(11) 5(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17) GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) MOBILE AL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 10(12) 4(16) X(16) X(16) GULFPORT MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) X( 7) X( 7) STENNIS MS 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) BURAS LA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) GFMX 280N 890W 34 X 3( 3) 9(12) 2(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Remnants of Fred Forecast Advisory Number 23
2021-08-15 10:54:52| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 000 WTNT21 KNHC 150854 TCMAT1 REMNANTS OF FRED FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062021 0900 UTC SUN AUG 15 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COAST FROM THE ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER EASTWARD TO OCHLOCKONEE RIVER...FLORIDA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ALABAMA/FLORIDA BORDER TO OCHLOCKONEE FLORIDA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM ALABAMA TO THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PANHANDLE SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF FRED. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA LATER THIS MORNING. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT. 34 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 84.6W AT 15/0900Z AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.0N 84.3W FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.5N 85.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT...100NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.0N 86.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 28.5N 87.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.3N 87.1W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 80NE 70SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 32.5N 86.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 35.0N 85.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 84.6W NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z $$ FORECASTER STEWART
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Remnants of Fred Graphics
2021-08-15 04:58:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 02:58:17 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sun, 15 Aug 2021 03:22:51 GMT
Summary for Remnants of Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-15 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...REMNANTS OF FRED EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY... As of 11:00 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 the center of Fred was located near 23.8, -84.3 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 35 mph.
Remnants of Fred Public Advisory Number 22
2021-08-15 04:48:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 000 WTNT31 KNHC 150248 TCPAT1 BULLETIN Remnants Of Fred Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062021 1100 PM EDT Sat Aug 14 2021 ...REMNANTS OF FRED EXPECTED TO RE-DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO ON SUNDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.8N 84.3W ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM WNW OF HAVANA CUBA ABOUT 530 MI...855 KM SSE OF MOBILE ALABAMA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico from Mississippi to the central Florida Panhandle should monitor the progress of the remnants of Fred. Watches and warnings could be required for portions of this area early Sunday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the remnants of Fred were located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 84.3 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h). A motion toward the northwest is expected to begin later tonight and continue through Sunday night, with a turn toward the north expected on Monday. On the forecast track, the system will cross the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, cross the central and northern Gulf of Mexico Sunday and Monday, and move inland along the northern Gulf coast Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Fred is expected to re-develop into a tropical depression or tropical storm on Sunday, with gradual strengthening expected while it moves over the Gulf of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for the Remnants of Fred can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1, WMO header WTNT41 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: Rainfall Statement: Fred or its remnants are expected to produce the following rainfall amounts: Through today... Portions of Cuba...2 to 5 inches with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may lead to scattered flash flooding. Across the Bahamas...1 to 3 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 5 inches. Through Monday... Keys and southern Florida...3 to 5 inches. From Sunday night into Tuesday... The Florida Big Bend and Panhandle...3 to 7 inches with isolated maximum totals of 10 inches. Southern Alabama...2 to 4 inches with isolated maximum totals of 6 inches. Heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and southern Alabama could lead to areal, urban, small stream and river flooding impacts. From Tuesday onward... Heavy rain and flood impacts could extend into inland portions of the Southeast and into the southern and central Appalachians and Piedmont as Fred interacts with a front in the area. SURF: Swells generated by Fred or its remnants are expected to spread across the Florida Keys later this morning and reach the coast of Mississippi, Alabama and the Florida Panhandle on Monday. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. TORNADOES: A tornado or two will be possible through Sunday night over parts of the western Florida Peninsula. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Brown
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