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Remnants of Kate Forecast Discussion Number 19
2021-09-01 22:42:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT45 KNHC 012042 TCDAT5 Remnants Of Kate Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 Kate's structure this afternoon has deteriorated further. While occasional bursts of deep convection are still occuring to the south of a broad area of low-level cyclonic rotation, this activity lacks much organization. Recent visible satellite imagery also suggests that the low-level circulation is in the process of opening up into a trough, with little if any northerly cloud motions being observed to the west of the estimated center. In addition, I have been fortunate to receive some in-situ data from the NASA-DC8 aircraft that earlier preformed a research mission into Kate. Dropsonde data launched near the center indicated that the surface pressure was near 1012 mb, which is only a few millibars lower than the environmental ambient pressure. The dropsondes launched west of the center also failed to find any northerly surface winds. The combination of these data suggest that Kate's center is losing definition and no longer possesses a well-defined circulation. Therefore, the system no longer meets the definition of a tropical cyclone, and this will be the final advisory. Maximum sustained winds have also been lowered to 25-kt based on the surface winds from dropsonde data provided by the DC8 aircraft to the east of the center. The remnants of Kate have accelerated to the north-northwest today with the estimated motion at 340/13 kt, likely as the low-level vorticity maxima has become fully decoupled from the mid-level vortex located well to the south and east. This motion should continue until Kate completely fades away while embedded in the synoptic environment near a low-level subtropical ridge. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/2100Z 28.5N 52.9W 25 KT 30 MPH 12H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Papin
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Remnants of Kate Graphics
2021-09-01 22:41:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 20:41:41 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Wed, 01 Sep 2021 20:41:41 GMT
Summary for Remnants of Kate (AT5/AL102021)
2021-09-01 22:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...KATE NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Wed Sep 1 the center of Kate was located near 28.5, -52.9 with movement NNW at 15 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1012 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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Remnants of Kate Public Advisory Number 19
2021-09-01 22:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 000 WTNT35 KNHC 012040 TCPAT5 BULLETIN Remnants Of Kate Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102021 500 PM AST Wed Sep 01 2021 ...KATE NO LONGER HAS A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION... ...THIS IS THE FINAL ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 52.9W ABOUT 960 MI...1545 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 500 PM AST (2100 UTC), the remnants of Kate were located near latitude 28.5 North, longitude 52.9 West. The remnants are moving toward the north-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h) and this motion is expected to continue through tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1012 mb (29.89 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Papin
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Remnants of Kate Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2021-09-01 22:41:01| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 000 FONT15 KNHC 012040 PWSAT5 REMNANTS OF KATE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102021 2100 UTC WED SEP 01 2021 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF KATE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 52.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z WED 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 18Z SAT 18Z SUN 18Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER PAPIN
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