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Remnants of Grace Wind Speed Probabilities Number 34
2021-08-21 22:44:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 FONT12 KNHC 212044 PWSAT2 REMNANTS OF GRACE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF GRACE WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.6 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 100.1 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 20 KTS... 25 MPH...35 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 18Z TUE 18Z WED 18Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER PASCH
Summary for Remnants of Grace (AT2/AL072021)
2021-08-21 22:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...GRACE WEAKENS TO A DISTURBANCE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 4:00 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 the center of Grace was located near 19.6, -100.1 with movement W at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1002 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 25 mph.
Remnants of Grace Public Advisory Number 34
2021-08-21 22:43:40| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 000 WTNT32 KNHC 212043 TCPAT2 BULLETIN Remnants Of Grace Advisory Number 34 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072021 400 PM CDT Sat Aug 21 2021 ...GRACE WEAKENS TO A DISTURBANCE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...19.6N 100.1W ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM WNW OF CIUDAD DE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...25 MPH...35 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 260 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has discontinued all warnings for the coast of Mexico. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the remnants of Grace were located near latitude 19.6 North, longitude 100.1 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph (35 km/h) with higher gusts. Although Grace has dissipated, its remnants will likely move into the eastern North Pacific by Sunday afternoon, where it is likely to develop into a new tropical cyclone next week. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb (29.59 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Grace can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2, WMO header WTNT42 KNHC and on the web at www.hurricanes.gov/graphics_at2.shtml?key_messages. RAINFALL: The remnants of Grace will be capable of producing an additional 1 to 3 inches of rain with isolated maximum amounts of around 5 inches through tonight across portions of central Mexico, including Ciudad de Mexico. The lingering heavy rainfall may lead to additional areas of flash and urban flooding, along with mudslides, through tonight. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Remnants of Grace Forecast Advisory Number 34
2021-08-21 22:43:12| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 000 WTNT22 KNHC 212043 TCMAT2 REMNANTS OF GRACE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072021 2100 UTC SAT AUG 21 2021 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE COAST OF MEXICO. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 60 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.6N 100.1W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 99.5W FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.6N 100.1W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Remnants of Fred (AT1/AL062021)
2021-08-15 13:53:53| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE REMNANTS OF FRED... As of 8:00 AM EDT Sun Aug 15 the center of Fred was located near 25.3, -84.6 with movement NNW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1009 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.
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