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Remnants of ERIKA Graphics
2015-08-29 16:51:32| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 13:31:25 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 29 Aug 2015 14:50:47 GMT
Remnants of ERIKA Forecast Discussion Number 19
2015-08-29 15:31:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT45 KNHC 291331 TCDAT5 REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 Surface observations from Cuba, satellite imagery, and reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Erika has degenerated into a trough of low pressure, with the remnants of the center located near the north coast of eastern Cuba. Winds of near 30 kt are occurring to the north and east of the center, and these conditions will likely continue through at least this afternoon. The remnants are expected to move west-northwestward near the northern coast of central and eastern Cuba for the next 12 to 24 hours and reach the southeastern Gulf of Mexico in about 36 hours. After that time, a more northward motion is expected over the eastern Gulf of Mexico. The dynamical models suggests that the current strong wind shear could relax by the time the system reachs the Gulf of Mexico, and there is a possibility that Erika could regenerate. Regardless of regeneration, locally heavy rains and gusty winds should spread across portions of Cuba, the Bahamas, and southern Florida during the next couple of days. This will be the last advisory on this system by the National Hurricane Center unless regeneration occurs. Additional information can be found in the Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/1330Z 21.5N 75.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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erika
Remnants of ERIKA Public Advisory Number 19
2015-08-29 15:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT35 KNHC 291330 TCPAT5 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 930 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015 ...ERIKA DEGENERATES TO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.5N 75.9W ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM E OF CAMAGUEY CUBA ABOUT 260 MI...420 KM SSE OF NASSAU MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 22 MPH...35 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: All coastal watches and warnings are discontinued. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests in the Bahamas, eastern and central Cuba, and southern Florida should monitor the progress of the remnants of Erika. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 930 AM EDT (1330 UTC), the remnants of Erika were estimated near latitude 21.5 North, longitude 75.9 West. The remnants are moving toward the west-northwest near 22 mph (35 km/h). This general motion should continue for the next 24 hours or so, with the remnants expected to move near the coast of eastern and central Cuba today and tonight and into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Sunday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Erika are expected to produce total rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches possible across portions of the Dominican Republic, Haiti and eastern and central Cuba through Sunday. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. In addition, rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected across the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as the southeastern and central Bahamas through Sunday. Rainfall amounts of 3 to 5 inches, with locally heavier amounts, are possible across southern and central Florida beginning on Sunday. WIND: Gusts to tropical storm force are expected in squalls over portions of the Turks and Caicos Islands and the southeastern Bahamas for the next several hours. These conditions are expected to spread into the central Bahamas this afternoon and tonight. Gusts to tropical storm force in squalls are also possible over eastern Cuba today. Gusty winds could occur over southern Florida beginning on Sunday. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. Additional information on this system will be available in Tropical Weather Outlooks issued by the National Hurricane Center, as well as marine forecasts and local forecast office products issued by the National Weather Service. $$ Forecaster Beven
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Remnants of ERIKA Forecast Advisory Number 19
2015-08-29 15:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1330 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 WTNT25 KNHC 291330 TCMAT5 REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1330 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... ALL COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN THE BAHAMAS...EASTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.9W AT 29/1330Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1011 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.5N 75.9W AT 29/1330Z AT 29/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 74.4W FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.5N 75.9W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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erika
Remnants of ERIKA Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-08-29 15:30:50| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1330 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 000 FONT15 KNHC 291330 PWSAT5 REMNANTS OF ERIKA SPECIAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015 1330 UTC SAT AUG 29 2015 AT 1330Z THE REMNANTS OF ERIKA WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.5 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 75.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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