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Remnants of DANNY Graphics
2015-08-24 18:24:02| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2015 16:24:02 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Mon, 24 Aug 2015 14:37:44 GMT
Summary for Remnants of DANNY (AT4/AL042015)
2015-08-24 16:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DANNY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 11:00 AM AST Mon Aug 24 the center of DANNY was located near 16.0, -62.0 with movement W at 12 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1010 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
Remnants of DANNY Public Advisory Number 25
2015-08-24 16:45:45| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015 000 WTNT34 KNHC 241445 TCPAT4 BULLETIN REMNANTS OF DANNY ADVISORY NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015 ...DANNY DEGENERATES INTO A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.0N 62.0W ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM WSW OF GUADELOUPE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ Reports from an Air Force Hurricane Hunter plane indicate that Danny has degenerated into a trough of low pressure. At 1100 AM AST (1500 UTC), the remnants of Danny were located near latitude 16.0 North, longitude 62.0 West. The remnants are moving toward the west near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next day or two. Maximum sustained winds have decreased near 30 mph (45 km/h) with higher gusts. The trough is expected to dissipate during the next couple of days. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1010 mb (29.83 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- RAINFALL: The remnants of Danny are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain over the Leeward Islands, the U.S. and British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the Dominican Republic through Tuesday night. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on Danny. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. $$ Forecaster Pasch
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danny
Remnants of DANNY Forecast Discussion Number 25
2015-08-24 16:39:44| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1100 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 241439 TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF DANNY DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1100 AM AST MON AUG 24 2015 Although an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft found a few light westerly winds, they were neither strong nor extensive enough to support the existence of a well-defined circulation. In addition, surface synoptic data from the Lesser Antilles suggest that the system has degenerated into a trough. The system also lacks sufficient organized deep convection to qualify as a tropical cyclone. Therefore, this is the last advisory on Danny. The remnants of Danny should continue to move westward over the northeastern Caribbean, and global model guidance show the system losing its identity within 48 hours or less. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and available on the Web at http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/1500Z 16.0N 62.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS 12H 25/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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danny
Remnants of DANNY Wind Speed Probabilities Number 25
2015-08-24 16:39:17| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 000 FONT14 KNHC 241439 PWSAT4 REMNANTS OF DANNY WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 25 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042015 1500 UTC MON AUG 24 2015 AT 1500Z THE REMNANTS OF DANNY WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.0 NORTH ...LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN STANDARD TIME (EST)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL STANDARD TIME (CST)...SUBTRACT 6 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 12Z THU 12Z FRI 12Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ...THERE IS NO OFFICIAL FORECAST FOR THIS DATE/TIME... AND THEREFORE NO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES CAN BE CALCULATED... $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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