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Remnants of SIXTEEN-E Wind Speed Probabilities Number 5
2015-09-21 22:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 212038 PWSEP1 REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 AT 2100Z THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E WERE LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 30.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 111.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Remnants of SIXTEEN-E Forecast Advisory Number 5
2015-09-21 22:30:50| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 212030 TCMEP1 REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162015 2100 UTC MON SEP 21 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. INTERESTS IN NORTHWESTERN MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THE REMNANTS OF SIXTEEN-E. REMNANTS OF CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 111.7W AT 21/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 16 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 111.7W AT 21/2100Z AT 21/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 111.9W FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.7N 111.7W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS
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Remnants of NINE Graphics
2015-09-19 22:51:36| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 20:33:05 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 19 Sep 2015 20:50:49 GMT
Remnants of NINE Forecast Discussion Number 14
2015-09-19 22:31:41| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 000 WTNT44 KNHC 192031 TCDAT4 REMNANTS OF NINE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092015 500 PM AST SAT SEP 19 2015 Organized deep convection has been absent from the depression for more than 12 hours, with Dvorak classifications of too weak to classify at 12Z and 18Z. In addition, visible satellite imagery shows that the center of the depression has continued to become elongated today and is no longer well defined. As a result, the system is no longer a tropical cyclone and this will be the final advisory. The remnants could continue to produce some intermittent bursts of convection during the next couple of days. The motion has been around 290/04 for the past few hours, and the remnants of the depression should continue to move generally west-northwestward for the next couple of days. Additional information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 19/2100Z 18.8N 49.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...REMNANTS OF NINE 12H 20/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brennan
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remnants
Summary for Remnants of NINE (AT4/AL092015)
2015-09-19 22:31:10| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...DEPRESSION DISSIPATES... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... As of 5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 19 the center of NINE was located near 18.8, -49.9 with movement WNW at 5 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1007 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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