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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Public Advisory Number 21
2021-08-12 16:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 121430 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Advisory Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 800 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 ...KEVIN DEGENERATES INTO A REMNANT LOW... ...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...23.2N 120.6W ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM SW OF PUNTA EUGENIA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin was located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 120.6 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue through early Friday. A turn toward the northwest is expected later on Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Weakening is forecast during the next couple of days, and the remnant low is expected to dissipate by Sunday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb (29.74 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are reaching the west coast of Baja California Sur but will gradually subside today. However, another round of swells is expected to reach southern portions of Baja California Sur on Friday from Linda. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- This is the last public advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center on this system. For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php $$ Forecaster Berg
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 21
2021-08-12 16:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 121430 TCMEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. 12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 0SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.2N 120.6W AT 12/1500Z AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 120.0W FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 24.2N 122.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 25.5N 124.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 27.0N 126.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.7N 128.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 30.2N 129.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.2N 120.6W THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC. $$ FORECASTER BERG
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Post-Tropical Cyclone Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 21
2021-08-12 16:30:51| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 121430 PWSEP1 POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 1500 UTC THU AUG 12 2021 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 120.6 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT 25N 125W 34 X 12(12) 1(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) 30N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Depression Kevin Graphics
2021-08-12 10:38:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:38:56 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 12 Aug 2021 08:38:56 GMT
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Tropical Depression Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 20
2021-08-12 10:38:15| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 120838 TCDEP1 Tropical Depression Kevin Discussion Number 20 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 12 2021 Kevin is barely a tropical cyclone, as its exposed low-level center has been displaced over 100 n mi northeast of a few small bursts of convection for most of the night. In fact, the last semblance of organized convection with this sheared cyclone ended around 11/2100 UTC. If Kevin is unable to generate any organized convection soon, the system could be declared a post-tropical remnant low later this morning. Overnight ASCAT-A/B passes only showed 25 to 30-kt winds, primarily in the eastern semicircle of Kevin. Therefore, the initial intensity is lowered to 30 kt for this advisory, which makes Kevin a tropical depression. Based on recent scatterometer fixes, it appears the broad center of Kevin is moving slightly more west-northwestward than before, or 295/10 kt. A general west-northwest to northwest motion should continue through dissipation as the system moves along the southwestern side of a deep-layer ridge. The track guidance remains in good agreement, and the official NHC track forecast has been nudged slightly southward from the previous one based on the initial motion adjustment. The cyclone is already north of the 26 deg C isotherm, and it will move over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment during the next couple of days. Thus, the development of new, organized convection near Kevin's center seems very unlikely. The official NHC forecast now shows Kevin degenerating to a remnant low later today, in agreement with the latest GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery. The remnant low should gradually spin down over the next couple of days before dissipating this weekend. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/0900Z 22.3N 119.3W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 12/1800Z 23.2N 121.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24H 13/0600Z 24.4N 123.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36H 13/1800Z 25.8N 125.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 14/0600Z 27.4N 127.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 14/1800Z 29.0N 129.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Cangialosi
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