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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-10 22:41:06| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 20:41:06 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 21:29:47 GMT
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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-10 22:40:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...DISHEVELED KEVIN CROSSES CLARION ISLAND... As of 2:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Kevin was located near 19.1, -115.5 with movement NW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 14
2021-08-10 22:38:46| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 102038 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 2100 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 150SE 150SW 15NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N 115.5W AT 10/2100Z AT 10/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 115.2W FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.9N 116.5W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.2N 118.0W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.2N 120.0W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 23.3N 122.0W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 24.3N 124.4W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 25.3N 126.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 27.1N 130.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/1800Z...DISSIPATED MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N 115.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/0300Z $$ FORECASTER LATTO
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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-10 16:41:38| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:41:38 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 14:41:38 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 13
2021-08-10 16:40:24| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 101440 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone, with the bulk of the deep convection located southwest of its center, while the center itself was exposed for a few hours earlier this morning. The structure of the cyclone has changed little since yesterday, and remains somewhat elongated. The estimated initial intensity is being held at 40 kt, using a blend of the latest Dvorak T-numbers from TAFB and SAB. Kevin continues to make its jog to the northwest, and the initial motion is 315/08 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Model guidance has continued to make a gradual shift to the north for the past several runs, and thus the latest NHC track forecast has been nudged a little northward as well, lying just south of the consensus models. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next 24 h, which should limit the cyclone's ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By 24 h, the cyclone will begin to pass over progressively cooler waters and into a drier, more stable environment. Based on this scenario, the latest NHC intensity forecast shows no change in strength through much of tonight, followed by weakening beginning Wednesday morning. By 72 h, CMC and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low by that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/1500Z 19.1N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 11/0000Z 19.9N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/1200Z 21.0N 116.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 12/0000Z 22.1N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 12/1200Z 23.1N 120.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 60H 13/0000Z 24.1N 122.8W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/1200Z 25.2N 125.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/1200Z 27.2N 128.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/1200Z 28.7N 131.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Latto
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