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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-10 10:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... As of 3:00 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 the center of Kevin was located near 18.1, -113.3 with movement NW at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 12
2021-08-10 10:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100844 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 ...KEVIN STILL A SHEARED TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.1N 113.3W ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 18.1 North, longitude 113.3 West. Kevin is moving toward the northwest near 8 mph (13 km/h). A northwestward or west-northwestward motion with little change in forward speed is expected over the next several days. Satellite-derived wind data indicate that maximum sustained winds remain near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so, followed by gradual weakening beginning on Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center, primarily in the southern semicircle. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and will spread northward along the coast of Baja California Sur today. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 12
2021-08-10 10:45:05| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100844 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 12 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Tue Aug 10 2021 Deep convection associated with Kevin is still displaced well south and southwest of its exposed low-level center by strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. Recent scatterometer data indicate that the center is elongated from northeast to southwest, and the tropical-storm-force winds are confined to the southern semicircle of the cyclone. Based on several 35-kt wind vectors noted in the latest scatterometer passes, the initial intensity is held at 40 kt for this advisory. Satellite imagery indicates that Kevin has taken a northward jog overnight, and its estimated initial motion is now northwest or 305/8 kt. A general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next several days as Kevin moves along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. Based on the initial motion adjustment and guidance trends, the official NHC forecast track has been adjusted northward from the previous one, although it still lies a little to the south of the TVCE and HCCA aids. Moderate to strong northeasterly wind shear is forecast to persist over Kevin for the next day or so, which should limit its ability to strengthen despite favorable SSTs and abundant mid-level moisture. By the time that the wind shear diminishes, the cyclone will be passing over much cooler waters in a drier, more stable environment. Thus, little change in strength is expected in the near-term, followed by weakening beginning on Wednesday. Overall, the latest NHC intensity forecast remains near the multi-model consensus. By 72 h, GFS and ECMWF model simulated satellite imagery suggest that Kevin will be devoid of organized convection, and so the official NHC forecast shows Kevin as a remnant low at that time. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0900Z 18.1N 113.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W 35 KT 40 MPH 48H 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 60H 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W 25 KT 30 MPH 72H 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 12
2021-08-10 10:45:03| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 475 FOPZ11 KNHC 100844 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 113.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 88 4(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) X(92) ISLA CLARION 50 11 3(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 2 X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 28(28) 2(30) 1(31) X(31) X(31) X(31) 20N 115W 50 X 6( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 3( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 12
2021-08-10 10:44:32| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 WTPZ21 KNHC 100844 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE 120SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 113.3W AT 10/0900Z AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 113.1W FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.8N 114.4W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 0NE 90SE 150SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.8N 115.6W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 80SE 100SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 21.0N 117.2W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 40SE 60SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 22.0N 119.4W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 22.9N 121.5W MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 23.9N 123.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 26.0N 128.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 27.5N 131.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.1N 113.3W NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH
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