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Summary for Tropical Storm KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-04 04:30:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN STRENGTHENS A BIT... As of 8:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 3 the center of KEVIN was located near 19.7, -115.8 with movement N at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 999 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 60 mph.
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Graphics
2015-09-03 22:53:09| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 20:45:23 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 03 Sep 2015 20:52:18 GMT
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 13
2015-09-03 22:45:18| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 032044 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 PM PDT THU SEP 03 2015 The intensity and coverage of deep convection being produced by Kevin has been decreasing, although this may be a diurnal fluctuation. There are some ill-defined banding features over the northern semicircle, and the cyclone still has some outflow over the southern part of the circulation. The latter is a bit surprising, given the south-southwesterly shear over the system. The current intensity is held at 45 kt which is consistent with the latest Dvorak estimate from TAFB. There is a narrow window of opportunity for intensification in the short term, i.e. during the next 12 to 24 hours. Thereafter, the shear is forecast to increase and the cyclone should be ingesting drier and more stable air. The official forecast shows slight strengthening overnight followed by weakening and eventual degeneration into a remnant low in about 3 days. This is very close to the latest model consensus. Some of the guidance, such as the SHIPS model, show an even faster weakening than indicated here. Recent microwave imagery has provided some good center fixes, and the initial motion is a slightly faster 360/7. Kevin should move northward to northwestward on the southwest side of a mid-level subtropical anticyclone for the next day or two. Afterward, the weakening and increasingly shallow cyclone is likely to turn toward the west and be steered mainly by the low-level flow. The GFDL and HWRF models show a much more northward track, and appear to be unrealistic. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one, and close to the latest ECMWF solution. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/2100Z 18.7N 115.8W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 04/0600Z 19.8N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 05/0600Z 22.0N 116.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 05/1800Z 22.3N 117.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 72H 06/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 07/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Advisory Number 13
2015-09-03 22:44:41| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 032044 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 2100 UTC THU SEP 03 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 115.8W AT 03/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS..100NE 70SE 30SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 115.8W AT 03/2100Z AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 115.8W FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 19.8N 115.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 22.0N 116.3W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 22.3N 117.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 22.5N 119.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 22.5N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.7N 115.8W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z $$ FORECASTER PASCH
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Summary for Tropical Storm KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-03 22:44:35| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN CONTINUES NORTHWARD... As of 2:00 PM PDT Thu Sep 3 the center of KEVIN was located near 18.7, -115.8 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1000 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.
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