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Tropical Storm KEVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 19
2015-09-05 10:34:33| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 050834 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 0900 UTC SAT SEP 05 2015 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 23.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z SAT AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z SAT 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z SAT 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER BERG
Tropical Storm KEVIN Graphics
2015-09-05 04:53:07| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 02:44:58 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Sat, 05 Sep 2015 02:52:20 GMT
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 18
2015-09-05 04:44:59| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 050244 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 Satellite images indicate that the area of convection on the north side of Kevin continues to move farther away from the apparent center. The low-level circulation also appeared to be elongating from north to south on the last light visible imagery, with a recent microwave pass confirming that degraded structure. A blend of Dvorak estimates supports lowering the intensity to 40 kt. Remnant low status is expected by 36 hours, with the circulation probably degenerating into a trough by day 3. The center is getting harder to track, but I don't see convincing evidence that the initial motion has changed from the previous advisory, so it will remain 360/07. A leftward turn should occur overnight due to the cyclone decoupling from its mid-level center and being steered more by the low-level flow. The shallower cyclone should then gain a greater westerly component of motion this weekend as it moves around the low-level subtropical ridge over the eastern Pacific. The new track forecast is basically just an update of the previous one, and is south of the model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 22.7N 115.2W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 23.4N 115.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 23.9N 116.4W 25 KT 30 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 24.1N 117.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 07/0000Z 24.2N 118.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake
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Summary for Tropical Storm KEVIN (EP4/EP142015)
2015-09-05 04:44:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... As of 8:00 PM PDT Fri Sep 4 the center of KEVIN was located near 22.7, -115.2 with movement N at 8 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Public Advisory Number 18
2015-09-05 04:44:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 050244 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 18 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 ...KEVIN CONTINUING TO WEAKEN... SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.7N 115.2W ABOUT 340 MI...545 KM W OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 22.7 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kevin is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the west by Sunday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Additional weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kevin is forecast to become a remnant low early on Sunday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT. $$ Forecaster Blake
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