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Tropical Storm KEVIN Public Advisory Number 16
2015-09-04 16:50:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ34 KNHC 041450 TCPEP4 BULLETIN TROPICAL STORM KEVIN ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 800 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 ...KEVIN EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FAST... SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...21.2N 115.2W ABOUT 360 MI...580 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 800 AM PDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 115.2 West. Kevin is moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A turn toward the northwest and west-northwest with a decrease in expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Kevin is forecast to become a remnant low by late Saturday. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- None. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 200 PM PDT. $$ Forecaster Kimberlain
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Wind Speed Probabilities Number 16
2015-09-04 16:50:26| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 FOPZ14 KNHC 041450 PWSEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 21.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 115.2 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 50 KTS...60 MPH...95 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Advisory Number 16
2015-09-04 16:49:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ24 KNHC 041449 TCMEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 1500 UTC FRI SEP 04 2015 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 115.2W AT 04/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 7 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT. 50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 30SW 60NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 60SE 60SW 90NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.2N 115.2W AT 04/1500Z AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.9N 115.3W FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.1N 115.4W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 50NE 40SE 0SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.9N 116.0W MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW. FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.3N 116.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 23.4N 118.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.2N 115.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Graphics
2015-09-04 11:26:36| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 08:48:49 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Fri, 04 Sep 2015 09:10:13 GMT
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Tropical Storm KEVIN Forecast Discussion Number 15
2015-09-04 10:47:56| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 000 WTPZ44 KNHC 040847 TCDEP4 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP142015 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 04 2015 Kevin continues to produce a cluster of convection near the center with cloud tops colder than -80C. However, cirrus cloud motions in infrared satellite imagery suggest that southerly vertical wind shear is increasing over the cyclone, and an AMSU overpass at 0458 UTC suggests the low-level center is near the southern edge of the convection. The initial intensity remains 50 kt based on a blend of intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and the CIMSS satellite consensus technique. The initial motion is 360/7. Kevin should move generally northward for the next 12-24 hours. After that time, the dynamical guidance suggests that the top and the bottom of the cyclone will part company, with the mid- to upper-level center continuing northward and the low-level center turning northwestward and then west-northwestward. The new forecast track is similar to the previous track through 48 hours and lies near the various consensus models. After that time, it is nudged a little northward due to a northward shift in the track guidance. The forecast track takes Kevin over decreasing sea surface temperatures in an environment of increasing shear. This combination should cause steady weakening after 12 hours, with Kevin forecast to weaken to a depression in about 36 hours an to degenerate to a remnant low shortly thereafter. The new intensity forecast is in best agreement with the intensity consensus models. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 04/0900Z 20.2N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 12H 04/1800Z 21.2N 115.8W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 05/0600Z 22.2N 116.1W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 05/1800Z 22.9N 116.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 06/0600Z 23.4N 117.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 07/0600Z 24.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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