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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 8

2021-08-09 10:35:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 090835 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 110.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA SOCORRO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) ISLA CLARION 34 X 6( 6) 64(70) 4(74) 1(75) X(75) X(75) ISLA CLARION 50 X 1( 1) 30(31) 4(35) X(35) X(35) X(35) ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) 8( 8) 2(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 15N 115W 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) 20N 115W 34 X 1( 1) 12(13) 14(27) 1(28) X(28) X(28) 20N 115W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) 20N 115W 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 30(32) 2(34) X(34) 20N 120W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8) X( 8) X( 8) 20N 120W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 25N 120W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 20N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)

2021-08-09 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... As of 3:00 AM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 16.3, -110.9 with movement WNW at 7 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1001 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 50 mph.

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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 8

2021-08-09 10:35:14| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 090835 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 300 AM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...SLIGHTLY WEAKER KEVIN IS STRUGGLING WITH WIND SHEAR... SUMMARY OF 300 AM MDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...16.3N 110.9W ABOUT 460 MI...740 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 300 AM MDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 16.3 North, longitude 110.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts. A little strengthening is possible during the next couple of days, followed by a slow weakening trend thereafter. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km) from the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1001 mb (29.56 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch

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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Advisory Number 8

2021-08-09 10:34:44| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)

Issued at 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 274 WTPZ21 KNHC 090834 TCMEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0900 UTC MON AUG 09 2021 THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT. TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT. 34 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 30NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 45NE 30SE 30SW 45NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 110.9W AT 09/0900Z AT 09/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 110.6W FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.8N 111.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 40NE 50SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 17.6N 113.3W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW. 34 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 80NW. FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 18.4N 115.0W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 19.2N 116.5W MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 20.1N 118.2W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 90NW. FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 21.0N 120.2W MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 80SE 70SW 80NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 100 NM ON DAY 4 AND 125 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 22.5N 124.5W MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 24.0N 129.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 110.9W NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/1500Z $$ FORECASTER REINHART/PASCH

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