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Tropical Storm Kevin Graphics
2021-08-10 04:34:54| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:34:54 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 10 Aug 2021 02:34:54 GMT
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Tropical Storm Kevin Forecast Discussion Number 11
2021-08-10 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ41 KNHC 100233 TCDEP1 Tropical Storm Kevin Discussion Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 Kevin remains a sheared tropical cyclone with most of the convection displaced to the southwest of the elongated inner-core wind field due to strong northeasterly vertical wind shear. However, some small curved bands of shallow convection have recently developed in the eastern semicircle, suggesting that the shear might be starting to abate somewhat. The initial intensity has been decreased to 40 kt, more in line with earlier ASCAT surface wind data that showed peak surface winds near 40 kt. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 295/08 kt. There is no change to the previous track forecast reasoning. Kevin is expected to continue moving west-northwestward through the 120-h forecast period along the southwestern periphery of a deep-layer ridge. The new NHC track forecast is just a tad to the right or north of the previous track, but remains near the southern portion of the track model envelope, between the ECMWF model to the south and the consensus models to the north. Kevin is forecast remain under the influence of at least modest northeasterly to easterly wind shear for the next 48 h. Thus little change in strength is expected despite he warm sea-surface temperatures (SST) exceeding 28C and a very moist mid-level environment exceeding 80 percent relative humidity. Thereafter the shear is forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt, which would normally favor intensification. However, Kevin will be moving over near-22 deg C SSTs at that time, so weakening rather than strengthening is forecast in the 72-120 period. The latest official intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows a blend of the consensus models HCCA and IVCN, and the Navy COAMPS-TC model. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 10/0300Z 17.4N 112.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 10/1200Z 18.1N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 11/0000Z 19.0N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 11/1200Z 20.0N 116.8W 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 12/0000Z 21.0N 118.6W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 12/1200Z 21.8N 120.8W 30 KT 35 MPH 72H 13/0000Z 22.7N 123.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 14/0000Z 24.6N 127.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 15/0000Z 26.2N 132.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ Forecaster Stewart
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Tropical Storm Kevin Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11
2021-08-10 04:34:00| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 000 FOPZ11 KNHC 100233 PWSEP1 TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112021 0300 UTC TUE AUG 10 2021 AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KEVIN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 112.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT ISLA CLARION 34 9 58(67) 1(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) X(68) ISLA CLARION 50 1 12(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) ISLA CLARION 64 X 2( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 20N 115W 34 X 5( 5) 7(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) X(12) 20N 120W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 7( 8) 5(13) X(13) X(13) 25N 125W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) 25N 130W 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) $$ FORECASTER STEWART
Summary for Tropical Storm Kevin (EP1/EP112021)
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
...KEVIN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CLARION ISLAND OVERNIGHT... As of 9:00 PM MDT Mon Aug 9 the center of Kevin was located near 17.4, -112.9 with movement WNW at 9 mph. The minimum central pressure was 1003 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 45 mph.
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Tropical Storm Kevin Public Advisory Number 11
2021-08-10 04:33:29| National Hurricane Center (East Pacific)
Issued at 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 000 WTPZ31 KNHC 100233 TCPEP1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Kevin Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112021 900 PM MDT Mon Aug 09 2021 ...KEVIN CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD... ...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR CLARION ISLAND OVERNIGHT... SUMMARY OF 900 PM MDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.4N 112.9W ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM ESE OF CLARION ISLAND MEXICO ABOUT 425 MI...685 KM SSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 900 PM MDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kevin was located near latitude 17.4 North, longitude 112.9 West. Kevin is moving toward the west-northwest near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next several days. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48 hours. A weakening trend is expected to begin by Wednesday evening. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center. A wind gust to 44 mph (70 km/h) was recently measured by a Mexican Navy weather observation site on Clarion Island. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- SURF: Swells generated by Kevin are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico, and are expected to spread northward to the coast of Baja California Sur today and Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 300 AM MDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart
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