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Subtropical Depression Alberto Public Advisory Number 18
2018-05-29 16:28:46| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
The NHC has issued its final advisory on this system. Public Advisories from the Weather Prediction Center will provide updates as long as the system remains a flood threat. Issued at 1000 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018
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Subtropical Depression Alberto Graphics
2018-05-29 10:48:28| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Tue, 29 May 2018 08:48:28 GMT Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Tue, 29 May 2018 08:48:29 GMT
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Subtropical Depression Alberto Forecast Discussion Number 17
2018-05-29 10:43:08| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018 000 WTNT41 KNHC 290843 TCDAT1 Subtropical Depression Alberto Discussion Number 17 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012018 400 AM CDT Tue May 29 2018 Radar and surface observations indicate that Alberto is moving north-northwestward at about 10 kt across central Alabama, and the associated convective pattern remains well organized in the radar data. During the past few hours, Montgomery has reported sustained winds near 25 kt with gusts around 35 kt, so the initial intensity is set to 25 kt. Alberto will continue to weaken as it moves over land during the next few days, and the system should degenerate into a remnant low in 24 h or less. The low is expected to dissipate completely by 96 h, and some of the dynamical guidance suggests this could occur earlier. Alberto or its remnants should accelerate north-northwestward to northward around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge to the east and southeast over the next couple of days. After that, the system should turn toward the north-northeast as it recurves into the mid-latitude westerlies. The new track forecast is similar to the previous forecast and is again close to the dynamical model consensus TVCN near the center of the tightly clustered guidance. This is the last advisory by the National Hurricane Center on Alberto. Future information on this system can be found in Public Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at 10 AM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT1, WMO header WTNT31 KWNH, and on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Heavy rainfall will lead to a significant risk of flash flooding across the Florida Panhandle, much of Alabama, and western Georgia overnight, spreading northward into northern Georgia, the western Carolinas, and Tennessee today. 2. Dangerous surf and rip current conditions will continue to affect portions of the eastern and northern Gulf Coast through today. 3. Future advisories on Alberto will be issued by the Weather Prediction Center. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 29/0900Z 32.3N 86.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 12H 29/1800Z 34.1N 87.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND 24H 30/0600Z 36.8N 87.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND 36H 30/1800Z 39.8N 87.1W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 31/0600Z 43.1N 85.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 01/0600Z 49.5N 79.5W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 02/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Beven
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Subtropical Depression Alberto Wind Speed Probabilities Number 17
2018-05-29 10:42:16| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
Issued at 0900 UTC TUE MAY 29 2018 000 FONT11 KNHC 290842 PWSAT1 SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 17 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012018 0900 UTC TUE MAY 29 2018 AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF SUBTROPICAL DEPRESSION ALBERTO WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 32.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 86.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/H. Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE OP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT. PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY 64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT. - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT BIRMINGHAM AL 34 5 X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) $$ FORECASTER BEVEN
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Summary for Subtropical Depression Alberto (AT1/AL012018)
2018-05-29 10:41:39| National Hurricane Center (Atlantic)
...CENTER OF ALBERTO MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL ALABAMA... ...HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT CONTINUES... As of 4:00 AM CDT Tue May 29 the center of Alberto was located near 32.3, -86.8 with movement NNW at 13 mph. The minimum central pressure was 995 mb with maximum sustained winds of about 30 mph.
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